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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

A new month. Same uncertainty.

Monday 1 February 2021

Better risk sentiment this morning with JPY and CHF selling still notable, equities firmer and Silver continues its bull run and testing $30 but. It remains to be seen what fall-out we might get from the military coup in Myanmar but the Forex jury remains out amid all the general noise so keep playing what's in front of you and don't over analyze.

GBPUSD found good support at 1.3660, then 1.3680 and 1.3700 on Friday amid some month-end JPY selling that I mentioned here and underpinned by both GBPJPY demand and EURGBP falling again. Failures into 1.3750 and 1.3760 and now back down through 1.3720 as I type.EURGBP failed at 0.8870 and retreated again amid the general EUR supply and GBP demand and now down through 0.8825-30 to test 0.8800 (GBPEUR up to 1.1360). GBPJPY foud a decent base at 143.20 then 143.60 amid the month-end JPY supply and now breaking up through 144.00 as I type with risk-on demand prevailing and USDJPY still underpinned.

I still have a naturally bearish stance on GBP overall and remain poised to sell into rallies but respecting dip demand still with price action ever fickle. Equally a case still for going long in the dips therefore as we continue to range. Patience and not getting greedy remain key.

USDJPY found a base on Friday at 104.60 after breaking up through the pivotal 104.50 amid the month-end JPY selling but equally still failing into 105.00.EURJPY broke and then held 126.80 on Friday amid the JPY supply but failed at 127.30 helped by some general EUR supply and now testing 126.80 again. EURUSD has this morning tested 1.2080-85 again after failing at 1.2130 with EURGBP, EURJPY, EURCHF all capping too. USDCHF finally broke up through 0.8920 after holding 0.8880 with the SNB ever watchful and some risk-off CHF supply and now up through 0.8950 and as EURUSD retreated but tempered by some EURCHF rally selling.

AUDUSD failed into 0.7700 then 0.7660 but has found good support at 0.7600 again in good two-way trading amd all the general noise/uncertainty. USDCAD found a good base this time at 1.2740 and then 1.2760 after failing at 1.2820 with some CADJPY demand notable again.

As we look at trading opportunities to begin the year it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience.

Southend were truly dreadful on Saturday offering nothing by way of purpose or desire and duly lost 5-1. The sad times continue but, hey, it's only football eh?

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.40 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3727

EURUSD 1.2102

EURGBP 0.8815

GBPEUR 1.1343

GBPAUD 1.7980

GBPCAD 1.7565

GBPJPY 143.90

GBPZAR 20.7135

GBPHKD 10.6425

USDJPY 104.83

USDZAR 15.1035

EURJPY 126.83

EURCHF 1.0819

EURHKD 9.3824

AUDUSD 0.7633

USDCAD 1.2797

USDCHF 0.8943

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