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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

A new week gets cautiously underway

Monday 25 September 2023

A busy week of central bank action, or inaction as it turned out, has left markets in a state of fatigue and we're seeing a cautious start to another five days of second-guessing and conjecture. The Greenback remains underpinned but we're seeing some JPY demand again amid some fragile risk tones and USDJPY still teasing traders and the BOJ/MOF alike.

US equities fell late in NY and in retreat once again as early European trading gets underway adding to the softer risk tones. WTI is capped into $91.00 still but holding $89.00 this time as it remain underpinned overall with concerns over supply adding to the support. Bids: $90.00, $89.50-60, $89.00-30, $88.50-60, $88.00-20. Offers: $90.30-50, $90.80-00 $91.50-60, $92.00. Gold finding support around $1920 this time after failing to make headway above $1930 with natural sellers still poised and tight range prevailing. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension but also the Middle East among other areas of conflict.

GBPUSD: 1.2280-00 providing the cap now and now challeng 1.2220-30 again as I type. Some option interest in play today if we rally. Keeping core shorts still and I remain poised for further rally re-sells. EURGBP: Holding 0.8675 now in retreats amid the general GBP supply post-BOE but capping between 0.8700-10 so far. More two-way expected overall but should remain underpinned for the moment. GBPJPY: Capped at 182.00-10 amid the GBP supply/softer risk tones but a base around 181.30-50 a for the moment as core pairs find some dip demand. Sellers ever poised as I've been warning.

EURUSD: Capping into 1.0670 still amid the general USD demand as we now test 1.0620-30 again. I remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: A good hold of 148.00 in Friday's retreat and 148.50 being tested again this morning amid the general USD demand but ongoing fears of MOF/BOJ intervention continue. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.

More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from

Interbank rates: 08.45 BST

GBPUSD 1.2242

EURUSD 1.0635

EURGBP 0.8686

GBPEUR 1.1508

USDJPY 148.44

GBPJPY 181.71

GBPCAD 1.6498

GBPCHF 1.1117

GBPZAR 22.9811

GBPHKD 9.5271

USDCHF 0.9100

EURCHF 0.9677

EURHKD 8.2787

AUDUSD 0.6420

NZDUSD 0.5949

USDCAD 1.3477

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