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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

A new week, same uncertainty.

Monday 14 August 2023

Friday saw US PPI data a little stronger than anticipated which brough with it some USD demand lifting USDJPY higher again and with some risk-off sentiment we saw commodity currency supply too albeit with CAD now getting some firmer oil support.

News over the weekend giving more concern for the Chinese housing market has kept risk appetite on the back foot with AUD and NZD supply notable amid general USD demand on the weaker Yuan albeit with some JPY demand helping to cap USDJPY above 145.20 along with fears of BOJ/MOF intervention at this key level.

Equities have found some dip demand this morning but the second-guessing continues. WTI has found a base this time at $81.50 after Friday's risk-off retreat from $83.30. Gold found support into $1910 this time after another cap around $1920-25 as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on Ukraine/Russia but also tension in the Middle East among other areas of conflict.

GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2740 on Friday but holding 1.2665 in the extended retreat through the 1.2680 support area and now back up testing 1.2700 as I type. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. EURGBP: Finding a cap at 0.8640-50 again but holding then 0.8620-25 still. More two-way expected as core pairs make their mind up. GBPJPY: A good hold of 183.50 in recet retreats but sellers still lurkingabove 184.00 amid the fragile risk tones overall.

EURUSD: Holding the old 1.0930 support area this time after the 1.0980 cap on Friday and 1.0960 since as we continue to trade tightly. I prefer the rally-sell side still but dip demand also notable. USDJPY: Now underpinned at 144.50-60 but sellers prevailing at 145.20 helped by some risk-off JPY demand and BOJ/MOF intervention fears. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall but with patience a virtue as ever. Equally dip buyers finding results too. EURJPY: Support at 158.20 now amid core pair dip demand and a little better risk appetite this morning but sellers lurking at 159.00 so far. Underpinned overall still but some two-way business expected amid mixed risk tones and core pair flucation

USDCHF: Support at 0.8720-30 again on Friday but yet another cap 0.8770-80. Good jobbing pips to be had still and I remain a rally seller overall. EURCHF: Good support this time into the old 0.9580 area but rally sellers prevailing 0.9619 once we broke down through as we continue to range tightly here too. AUDUSD: Support around 0.6460 in the extended retreat through 0.6525 amid firmer USD/softer commodity ccy/risk tones. I remain a rally seller overall. GBPAUD: Underpinned around 1.9500 this time as AUDUSD retreat outstrips GBPUSD but still tightly bound as core pairs fluctate.

NZDUSD: Similar back story to AUDUSD yet again with support around 0.5950 in the extended retreat after capping into 0.6010 this time. GBPNZD: Also underpinned still, this time at 2.1150-60.

USDCAD: Support coming in at 1.3410 on Friday amid the softer oil tones/firmer USD. Expect more two-way business as I've been warning amid the oil, USD and risk variables.

Another amazing win for the Mighty Shrimpers of Southend making it 2 from 2 and still top of the table.....

Have a good week everyone and let's continue to be careful out there.

Interbank rates: 08.48 BST

GBPUSD 1.2700

EURUSD 1.0953

EURGBP 0.8627

GBPEUR 1.1590

USDJPY 144.79

GBPJPY 183.78

GBPCAD 1.7069

GBPCHF 1.1135

GBPZAR 24.0648

GBPHKD 9.8933

USDCHF 0.8760

EURCHF 0.9593

EURHKD 8.5287

AUDUSD 0.6492

NZDUSD 0.5986

USDCAD 1.3448

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