A new week. Same uncertainty.

Mike Paterson
Feb 26, 2024
2 min read

Monday 26 February 2024

Another week underway with the conjecture on FX pairs and markets in general still rampant and ranges therefore tight still. We did seem some US 30-year bond demand on Friday with rumours that it related to some German-owned commerical property concerns. Either way the USD supply helped put a lid on the Greenback but we've seen some demand return in Asia and two-way business overall.

No data of note today but CB speakers today include ECB's Lagarade and BOE's Breeden and Pill. The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions are all still casting their own shadow so while all the uncertainty remains, both economical and geopolitical, remember to identify your preferred levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows. Don't get greedy or over-analyse.

Equities enjoying good support still with the S&P 500 posting further record highs but off their highs again as European trading gets underway. WTI retreating to $76.75 this morning after capping at $78.00 on Friday on Gaza ceasefire hopes but supply concerns still helping to underpin overall. Gold capping at $2041 this time but has found some dip demand around $2025-30 now as we continue to range tightly.

GBPUSD: Support at 1.2650 on Friday but a failure above 1.2700 again and some re-sells duly placed. I remain poised for further sells when momentum fades as we continue to range overall. EURGBP: Basing around 0.8525 in Friday's extended retreat amid the GBP rally but now capping into 0.8555 as I type as the BOE/ECB debates continues. GBPJPY: Holding 190.30 after capping into 191.00-10 again as sellers remain poised on core pair supply but still underpinned overall.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0810-20 but rallies limited amid general EUR supply and I remain a rally seller. USDJPY: 150.30 holding again in the retreats with JPY supply helping to underpin but capping into 150.75-80 still. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall given that the BOJ still don't want this racing away too far.

Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk

Interbank rates: 08.48 GMT

GBPUSD 1.2670

EURUSD 1.0835

EURGBP 0.8551

GBPEUR 1.1692

USDJPY 150.58

GBPJPY 190.78

GBPCAD 1.7117

GBPCHF 1.1162

GBPZAR 24.5160

GBPHKD 9.8699