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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Another month drawing to a close

Tuesday 30 May 2023

Markets returning to some degree of normality today (if there indeed there is any "normality" these days) after the long week-end enjoyed by many and the jury remains out as attention finds itself focussed on month-end flows and the key US NFP jobs and wages data on Friday.

An agreement has been made on the US debt ceiling situation but still has to be approved by Congresss while the Greenback largely remains underpinned albeit USDJPY has seen a couple of wobbles and rapid retreats off fresh highs amid talk of discussions between Japanese authorities at 08.30 GMT followed by a presser. These meetings aren't unique and normally result in little apart from a bit of rhetoric but it's been enough to make traders a little nervous. Month-end USD signals point to some modest USD supply but EUR the exception.

Equities are steady again this morning as I type after after yesterday's cap of Friday's rally amid the fickle sentiment and WTI has capped at $73.50 again amid the ongoing global economic growth concerns but holding $72.00 this time so far. Gold capping at the old $1950 support as the natural sellers and Fed tigtening expectations continue to weigh despite fragile risk tones but holding previous support at $1930 so far. Increasing tensions in the Ukraine/Russia war, with fresh drone attacks now on Kyiv and Moscow, continue to be the elephant in the room along with US/China tensions as the world remains a fragile place.

GBPUSD: Failure at 1.2380 again yesterday amid the general USD demand but finding support at 1.2325-30 this time and now nudging 1.2360 as some USD supply returns and helped by EUR weakness sending EURGBP lower. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. EURGBP: Capping at 0.8680-00 yesterday and testing 0.8640-50 amid some general EUR supply and helping to underpin GBPUSD. GBPJPY: Capping at 173.80-00 but equally holding 173.00 in the dips driven by the rumour-mill USDJPY volatility. Rally sellers ever-poised but some demand expected too for the moment as USDJPY still remains underpinned.

EURUSD: Capping into 1.0745 again yesterday then 1.0720 in Asia amid the USD demand and now down through the significant 1.0700 area amid some general EUR supply. Holding 1.0675 so far and I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. USDJPY: Still looking underpinned overall amid the general USD demand/JPY supply as the BOJ YCC conjecture continues but capping above 140.80 a couple of times amid the BOJ/MOF conjecture and some natural rally selling but holding 140.00 in the dips. Some jobbing pips gratefully banked and I still prefer to sell rallies/be long JPY overall but ongoing caution/patience required.

More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and mentoring available from

Interbank rates: 08.25 BST

GBPUSD 1.2346

EURUSD 1.0675

EURGBP 0.8648

GBPEUR 1.1565

USDJPY 140.36

GBPJPY 173.30

GBPCAD 1.6798

GBPCHF 1.1195

GBPZAR 24.3930

GBPHKD 9.6362

USDCHF 0.9078

EURCHF 0.9693

EURHKD 8.3322

AUDUSD 0.6524

NZDUSD 0.6043

USDCAD 1.3600

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