Monday 13 November 2023
Friday saw equity markets and bond yields rising in US trading and despite a pause for breath remain underpinned this morning helping to underpin the Greenback helped by JPY supply which has seen USDJPY post fresh recent highs of 151.85 and supporting core pairs in the dips.
The RBA have again suggested that inflation will not be going away any time soon. Data focus this week will be on US CPI (Tues) and Retail Sales (Wed) and UK jobs/wages tomorrow. Plenty of CB speakers on the slate this week too. The UK government is currently having a Cabinet re-shuffle as I type with Braverman being sacked as Home Secretary and, less obviously, former PM David Cameron in for talks with a rumour that he will get the job of Foreign Secretary not without a large pinch of irony. The ongoing Middle East back-story sadly continues meanwhile and casts its own shadow over markets.
Equities enjoyed a good session on Friday and despite capping remain steady as European trading gets underway while WTI has found support into $76.00 this time but capping around $77.75 as sellers prevail with global demand concerns continuing. Gold capped at $1955 this time amid the better risk tones but holding $1930 as we continue to retrat but jury remains out.
GBPUSD: In retreat again on Friday amid the USD demand testing 1.2180 support but holding and now looking at 1.2250 res/offers helped by GBPJPY demand.I remain poised for rally sells when momentum fades. Keeping some core shorts as USDJPY rally re-sells again.EURGBP: Support at the old 0.8730 resistance as I type after capping at 0.8755. More two-way expected amid the core pair fluctuation.GBPJPY: Holding 184.80 again in Friday's retreat and testing 185.90 this morning amid the firmer risk sentiment but with sellers still poised amid possible MOF/BOJ intervention as USDJPY tests their patience again. Underpinned though again for the moment
EURUSD: Support at 1.0660 again on Friday after failure into 1.0700 amid the USD demand returning but ranging tightly still supported by EURJPY demand. I remain a rally seller overall.USDJPY: Posting 151.85 this morning now amid the USD demand/JPY better risk supply after holding 151.30-50 on Friday. Some jobbing pips banked to improve the position average again and I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels. MOF/BOJ cast a shadow still.
For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.40 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2236
EURUSD 1.0690
EURGBP 0.8736
GBPEUR 1.1445
USDJPY 151.79
GBPJPY 185.73
GBPCAD 1.6877
GBPCHF 1.1044
GBPZAR 22.88906
GBPHKD 9.5272
USDCHF 0.9017
EURCHF 0.9639
EURHKD 8.3205
AUDUSD 0.6368
NZDUSD 0.5882
USDCAD 1.3809
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