Tuesday 23 April 2024
Good two-way FX business in the past 24 hours which has also seen some improved risk appetite led by equities finally stopping their recent rot. Initial USD demand then saw gains trimmed and the jury remains out as USDJPY stays underpinned helped by the fresh JPY supply despite more noise from MOF/BOJ. Gold has continued its retreat amid the better risk tones with profit-taking continuing after failure above $2400.
The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East tensions still cast their own very large shadow. Remember as always to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows. Don't get greedy or over-analyse.
Equities finally had a day of relief rally as bargain hunters came out to play again but the jury remains out. WTI capped at $83.00 again amid receding ME tensions and steadier risk sentiment but held $80.70 in the retreat and now $82.70 amid ongoing conjecture. Gold capped around $2360 per my notes above as profit-taking continued but finding some dip demand around $2300 so far this morning.
GBPUSD: Holding 1.2300 yesterday after capping at 1.2380 amid the initial USD demand but back up to 1.2360 as I type. I remain a seller as we continue to range overall. EURGBP: Holding 0.8600 then 0.8620 since before capping into 0.8650 as the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture continues. GBPJPY: Capped at 191.70 again but holding the old 190.30 support line in the retreat amid underpinned USDJPY and risk appeitite turning back up and now 191.40 but sellers will remain poised in these fickle markets.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0620-30 again but capping into 1.0700 amid the two-way buiness as the ECB conjecture plays out too. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. USDJPY: Capping into the key 155.00 area but underpinned at 154.50-60 now helped by some JPY supply returning . No Japanese FX intervention as yet but maybe their patience will be tested soon.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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