Friday 25 August 2023
Markets still have their eye on the annual Jackson Hole gathering this weekend and with US Fed Chairman Powell speaking today at 14.00 GMT then ECB head Lagarde at 19.00 GMT we've seen some USD demand and fresh recent highs across a variety of pairs. Other Central Bank speakers on the agenda tomorrow but will we know any more policy specifics by Monday? Probably not but if so expect some initial flurry/gaps on the Asia open.
Equities had an awful session in NY and still on the back foot as European trading gets underway on the expectatiuon of a more hawkish Powell given recent data and imbedded inflation while WTI has rallied from yestererday's fresh recent lows of $77.60 and testing $79.80 as I type as the uncertainty continues.Gold finding support around $1910-15 again but natural sellers still prevailing between $1920-25 as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on Ukraine/Russia but also tension in the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: The USD-led retreat has extended into 1.2560 in Asia helped by softer risk GBPJPY supply demand amid the equity retreat after breaking down through the decent 1.2600-15 support. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall, ever-poised to sell rallies still. EURGBP: Finding a cap at 0.8585 but holding 0.8560 this time with more two-way expected overall as core pairs make their mind up. GBPJPY: Capping at 184.20 and another test of 183.40-50 amid the softer risk tones. Sellers will remain poised as risk remains fragile.
EURUSD: Holding support into 1.0760 after the eventual break down through 1.0800 support amid the USD demand and EURJPY supply. I remain a rally seller. USDJPY: Capping at 146.25 so far after yesterday's hold of 145.50-60 amid the USD demand. Small re-sells placed up here as an interest and I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall but with patience a virtue as ever. I still regard the risk being to the downside but no denying its underpinned for the moment.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1--2-1 mentoring services for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.48 BST
GBPUSD 1.2584
EURUSD 1.0775
EURGBP 0.8560
GBPEUR 1.1680
USDJPY 146.03
GBPJPY 183.73
GBPCAD 1.7085
GBPCHF 1.1144
GBPZAR 23.4927
GBPHKD 9.7998
USDCHF 0.8862
EURCHF 0.9547
EURHKD 8.3903
AUDUSD 0.6421
NZDUSD 0.5906
USDCAD 1.3587
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