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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Bring on the ECB

Thursday 14 September 2023


Yesterday brought some USD volatility around the keenly awaited US CPI data which showed a slightly higher core inflation but softer in other areas and the jury remains out on a Fed rate hike but expectations generally have lessened, bringing some USD supply.


Today lunchtime we get the latest decision on rates and policy from the ECB and we've seen some EUR demand again ahead of the event amid expectations of one more hike before a pause. We'll find out soon enough on the intended direction of travel. The jury remains out on JPY pairs which have steadied for the moment again amid some firmer risk tones. US data on the slate includes retail sales, weekly jobless claims and PPI all out amid the ECB fallout.....


Equities have found a little support in Asia after retreating in NY again while the second-guessing continues and WTI remains underpinned but capped around $89.00 this time after holding $87.80-00 then $88.20 again in the latest retreats.. Gold still capping at $1915 as equities steady again but finding support around $1905 as I type amid tight range prevailing. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension but also the Middle East among other areas of conflict.


GBPUSD: 1.2500-10 providing the cap still after holding 1.2430 in yesterday's US CPI fun and games. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. Ever-poised for re-sells. Large option interest in play at 1.2475 containing range. Beware EURGBP impact amid ECB fallout. EURGBP: Still holding the pivotal 0.8580-85 area but capped at 0.8610 as we wait on ECB. More two-way expected overall as markets make their mind up over CB expectations. GBPJPY: Capped at 184.40 then 184.20 again but holding 183.60 amid some better risk JPY supply helping to support. Sellers ever poised as I've been warning.


EURUSD: A hold of 1.0700-10 again and capping into 1.0770 amid the US CPI aftermath with traders cautious of today's ECB outcome. I remain a rally seller overall meanwhile. USDJPY: A good hold of 147.00 again but capping at 147.50-60 since US CPI fallout and I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall with patience a virtue as ever.


More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk


Interbank rates: 07.00 BST

GBPUSD 1.2494

EURUSD 1.0746

EURGBP 0.8600

GBPEUR 1.1624

USDJPY 147.10

GBPJPY 183.78

GBPCAD 1.6895

GBPCHF 1.1152

GBPZAR 23.5368

GBPHKD 9.7220

USDCHF 0.8916

EURCHF 0.9582

EURHKD 8.3629

AUDUSD 0.6438

NZDUSD 0.5933

USDCAD 1.3534




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