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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Bring on the NFPs

Friday 7 June 2024

Move over ECB, who yesterday duly cut rates by 25bps as expected, markets are now in wait-n-see mode ahead of today's US NFP jobs/wages data. We've seen some USD supply but mostly JPY demand notable led by USDJPY falling back into 155.20 amid softer risk appetite again. As with yesterday's ECB presser keep in mind today during the NFP algo-led fall-out that we also have some good-size options in play too.

Gold has taken a sharp downturn this morning amid reports that China has stopped buying the shiny stuff for its reserves and that's added to the wobbly risk tones but expect dip buyers still. Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East tensions sadly still cast their own very large shadow. Remember as always to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing.

Equities fell in NY then rallied into the close but falling a little in early Europe with profit-takers still lurking as the CB second-guessing continues. WTI dipped then rallied too from $74.00 to now test $75.50-60 this morning. Gold rallied to $2385 amid the softer risk tones but now testing $2350 on the China news per my note above. Dip demand should remain but profit-takers still poised.

GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2800-10 yet again after holding 1.2765-75 in the dip. Some re-sells duly placed per ongoing strategy. Options in play at 1.2800 helping to cap along with GBPJPY supply. EURGBP: Still tightly bound ahead after yesterday's ECB decision and holding around 0.8500 but capping at 0.8520 again. Expect more two-way as the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture and cross flows continue. GBPJPY: Holding 198.40 this morning in the JPY demand retreat after capping at 199.80.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0860 again yesterday but failing at 1.0900 in the rally where we also had large option contracts in play. We continue to range overall post ECB with Lagarde firmly on the fence. Options lurking again. USDJPY: Support at 155.15-20 this morning after the steady retreat from 156.40.

Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email

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