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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Busy week ahead

Monday 3 June 2024

A new month underway and this week we finally get to see what the ECB appetite for rate cuts really is on Thursday after we get the latest thoughts from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday.

FX pairs still ranging tightly as the second-guessing continues with data focus today on final US manufacturing ISM/PMI. Swiss CPI tomorrow and then of course a monthly infatuation with the US Non Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East tensions sadly still cast their own very large shadow. Remember as always to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows especially in days like today with thin liquidity. Don't get greedy or over-analyse.

Equities fell again on Friday then rallied into the NY close and finding some support in Asia/early Europe albeit with profit-takers still lurking as the CB second-guessing continues. WTI also fell again from $78.50 but holding $76.30-50 so far. Gold ran out of puff at $2360 with more profit taking in play but finding support at $2315 as appetite for the shiny stuff in the dips remains.

GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2765 on Friday but still holding of 1.2700 in the retreat amid the variable USD and GBPJPY flows. EURGBP: Holding around 0.8510 and now pushing up through 0.8525 amid some GBP supply. Expect more two-way as the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture and cross flows continue. GBPJPY: Holding 199.60 so far after failing at 200.60. Sellers will remain poised in these fickle markets but I'm still expecting dip buyers too.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0830 this morning in the retreat from 1.0860 as we continue to range tightly. USDJPY: Support coming in at 156.50-60 yet again on Friday and a decent rally to 157.45 as USD demand returned. That 156.50 support is now proving significant.

Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email

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