top of page
Search
  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Busy week of Central Banks ahead

Monday 11 December 2023


Friday's key US NFP jobs/wages data came in better than expected and against the grain of softer jobs numbers earlier in the week. Amid some general USD demand we've seen USDJPY back to 146.45 as markets continue to re-assess and correct what had been an over-reactionto the BOJ comments given the current information as I warned here last week.


Minds still being made up on the Greenback though and firmly focussed on Central Bank rate cuts in 2024 as inflation eases but BOJ will not be following suit. CB decisions kick off on Wednesday with the US Fed, then SNB, BOE and ECB on Thursday followed by BOJ on next Tuesday. US CPI data tomorrow may offer some FOMC clues. The ongoing Middle East back-story sadly continues meanwhile and casts its own shadow over markets but still not driving prices.


Equities rallied in NY again before retreating in Asia helped by some soggy Chinese economics tones again but off the early European lows as I type with the jury still out. WTI has capped at $72.00 this time after holding $70.50 on Friday amid the better risk tones but sellers remain poised amid global demand concerns. Gold trader lower again for the moment as markets steady generally and now back down through $2000 after breaking down through and then capping at $2020. Jury still out.


GBPUSD: Holding 1.2500 in Friday's retreat amid the better US jobs data but now capping between the old 1.2550-60 pivot area  falls tempered by the return of GBPJPY demand. I remain poised for further rally sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Support at 0.8560-65 yet again but capping around 0.8585 still. Jury still out but CB rate divergence in play for the moment plus other cross flows and hence tight range. GBPJPY: Holding 180.50 in NY amid USDJPY finding support and the return of some JPY supply in general on better risk tones. Capping around 183.70 and sellers remain poised but all more finely balanced now given the shakeout as I warned here on Friday.


EURUSD: Support on Friday around 1.0720-30 on Friday in the post-data dip but capping at 1.0770-80 with some USD demand returning. I remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: Basing at 143.50 and a steady rebound to 145.50 before a more rapid bounce to 146.50 on some less hawkish BOJ tones unsurprisingly.  I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these still elevated levels but caution advised as I've been warning.


For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk


Interbank rates: 08.36 GMT

GBPUSD    1.2557

EURUSD    1.0768

EURGBP    0.8576

GBPEUR    1.1658

USDJPY    146.20

GBPJPY    183.55

GBPCAD    1.7069

GBPCHF    1.1032

GBPZAR    23.9515

GBPHKD    9.7842

USDCHF    0.8787

EURCHF    0.9461

EURHKD    8.3927

AUDUSD    0.6558

NZDUSD    0.6111

USDCAD    1.3592



12 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Commentaires


bottom of page