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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Fed in focus

Wednesday 2 November 2022

Second Central Bank this week off the ramp tonight and the questions remain. Will the US Federal Reserve FOMC take a cautious tone or feel that inflation still needs a decent rate hike higher? I'm guessing that if Fed do go 75bps then Powell presser will attempt to diffuse. BOE next up tomorrow and will be keen observers this evening. Conjecture also over their plans and whether it will 50 or 75bps but I'm reckoning that they'll disappoint the hawks.

Meanwhile oil and equity markets also making their minds up still, as is gold, while we wait along with the geopolitical risk. Mixed USD tones have meant good two-way business to be had, as long as you don't over-analyse... Noises from Japan about weak Yen making JPY pairs vulnerable again but USDJPY holding 147.00 still so far.

As always, remember that conjecture and second-guessing should stand to one side on data and CB releases. Focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior.

GBPUSD: Another rally to test 1.1530 after holding below 1.1450 in yesterday's fall. Rally re-sells duly made per ongoing strategy and I remain a rally seller overall still.EURGBP: Another decent retreat finding support at 0.8580-85 this time. Should remain capped around 0.8630-50 still for the moment and I expect some two-way business into and post-BOE tomorrow. GBPJPY: That decent support around 170.00 now history with USDJPY retreat outstripping GBPUSD rally amid more JPY-weakness talk out of Japan. I would still expect sellers to prevail for the time being but USDJPY holding 147.00 for the moment.

EURUSD: 0.9950-60 capping again this time but a good hold of 0.9860 area again. Cross flows, risk, Ukraine all in the frame still as well as flows and Fed. Large option interest in play too this week. USDJPY: Looking a bit soggy again as we wait on the Fed, capping at 147.80-00 amid the softer USD tones and that JPY-weakness talk/concerns out of Japan but holding 147.00 still so far. I would expect sellers to prevail for the time being, Fed hike jerk higher not withstanding. EURJPY: Supported so far at 145.50 after retreat from 146.50 this time and sellers will remain poised. USDCHF: Sellers into 1.0020-30 prevailing again but some EURCHF dip demand with SNB never far away. Support at 0.9960 so far with Fed in focus. EURCHF: Capping around 0.9880 as USDCHF sellers prevail but SNB will still be keeping an eye but rally sellers still poised.

AUDUSD: Some good two-way business as the AUD jury remains out and we're now remain 0.6380-6430 as I type. NZDUSD also off its 0.5840 lows amid the softer USD help and testing 0.5880 again. USDCAD: Capped at 1.3665 then 1.3620 this time amid some USD supply generally but some dip demand at 1.3580 as oil prices retreat again.

Another brilliant win on the road last night for the mighty Shrimpers and now nine unbeaten to move up to 5th. Exciting times are back !

Have a good day one and all.

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