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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Firmer risk tones to start the week

Monday 27 June 2022

A record rally day on Friday for the US SP500 has set the tone for some better risk sentimet as another week gets underway with equities firmer and JPY supply notable again as the roller-coaster risk plays continue. Similar story for gold and oil price and commodity currencies taking feeling some love too.

The ECB's June Sintra Forum starts today and could be an opportunity to restore a framework for the ECB’s normalization path, which may help with the fragmentation challenge. President Lagarde due to speak at 17:30 GMT.Markets as ever will be looking for clues and second-guessing. Various other central bank speakers over nect couple of days.On different ECB note they have today announced a change to policy announcement and presser times to 14.15 CET and 14.45 CET effective 21 July meeting.

As ever, deal on fact not second-guessing. Be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always but equally hesitation can often ruin a great idea.

GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.2260 then 1.2280 and a test of 1.2335 amid the softer USD and firmer risk GBPJPY demand. I remain poised to sell rallies. Timing as ever is crucial.EURGBP: Capping at 0.8610 this time but holding 0.8575-80as jury remains out and plenty of second-guessing the ECB and BOE still. GBPJPY: 165.50 the new base but capping at 166.50 so far the latest firmer risk rally. I think the variable risk tones will help to keep contained still.

EURUSD: Capped into 1.0600 so far this morning but underpinned around 1.0550.USDJPY: Finding support into 134.50 in Asia and the JPY supply helping to keep the pair underpinned around 135.00 despite some generally softer USD tones. EURJPY: That base at 142.00 now back in place amid the firmer risk tones but capping around 143.00 so far. Rally sellers poised still when sentiment turns softer. USDCHF: Support coming in at 0.9560 again but sellers poised into 0.9600 still. Jury remains out on SNB and amid variable risk. EURCHF: Holding 1.0060 again then 1.0080 and noew up through the 1.01030 area again amid firmer risk sentiment. Sellers will remain poised. AUDUSD: Capping at 0.6960 but finding a base at 0.6920 helped by the AUDJPY demand and gneral commodity ccy love again. GBPAUD holding 1.7650 and now testing 1.7750 again amid the general GBP demand. NZDUSD finding support at 0.6300 amid some general NZDJPY and commodty ccy demand but struggling to rally too far. GBPNZD finding support at 1.9450 again after a solid hold of 1.9400 but capping at 1.9525 in the bounce so far.USDCAD: Down through 1.2900 amid the generally softer USD tones and CADJPY demand but 1.2860 holding so far.

Let's continue to be careful out there, and have a good week ahead.

Interbank rates: 08.48 BST

GBPUSD 1.2315

EURUSD 1.0583

EURGBP 0.8593

GBPEUR 1.1631

GBPJPY 166.28

GBPCAD 1.5856

GBPCHF 1.1784

GBPZAR 19.5488

GBPHKD 9.5895

USDJPY 135.05

EURJPY 142.92

EURCHF 1.0124

EURHKD 8.2455

AUDUSD 0.6938

USDCAD 1.2865

USDCHF 0.9665

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