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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

FOMC Minutes in focus

Wednesday 11 October 2023

Markets still trying to digest the ongoing geopolitical risk amid the awful events in Israel/Gaza and remain understandably cautious. US Federal Reserve FOMC minutes are in focus today due to the increased scrutiny around tight financial conditions given some Fed head comments this week. Risk sentiment is softer again and that's helping to cap JPY and CHF crosses and therefore core pairs too.

US PPI today and CPI tomorrow at 12.30 GMT will keep traders second-guessing before and after the FOMC Minutes amid everything else going on. Fed speakers today include Waller, Bowman,Bostic, Collins.

Equities rallied then fell yesterday and capping again in early European trading with one eye on the Middle East while WTI has found support around $84.00 again but sellers at $85.20 this time with the jury still out amid the uncertain global economic picture too. Gold finding support around $1855 now and testing $1870 amid the fragile risk but with natural sellers ever poised. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension and now with the Middle East sadly to the fore.

GBPUSD: Capping around 1.2300 in yesterday's extended rally amid softer USD tones after holding 1.2250-60. I remain poised for further re-sells. EURGBP: Holding 0.8625 in yesterday's extended retreat from 0.8650 as GBPUSD rally outstripped EURUSD again but capping at 0.8640 this time. More two-way business expected. GBPJPY: Holding 182.30 yesterday and a decent rally to 183.10 but in retreat again this morning amid the softer risk tones with rally sellers ever poised still.

EURUSD: 1.0570 held yesterday then 1.0590 helped by some USD supply returning but capping at 1.0630 as the jury remains out. I remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: 148.40 holding yesterday but rallies capping around 149.00 again with JPY demand again prevailing on the softer risk sentiment. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.

More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from

Interbank rates: 08.48 BST

GBPUSD 1.2274

EURUSD 1.0597

EURGBP 0.8633

GBPEUR 1.1581

USDJPY 148.75

GBPJPY 182.58

GBPCAD 1.6687

GBPCHF 1.1089

GBPZAR 23.2295

GBPHKD 9.5583

USDCHF 0.9041

EURCHF 0.9581

EURHKD 8.2542

AUDUSD 0.6416

NZDUSD 0.6021

USDCAD 1.3593

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