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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

FX jury remains out as Ukraine war continues

Monday 21 March 2022

Sad times in Ukraine still and the Greenback has once again seen some mixed tones as have equity markets with peace talks continuing but far from reaching any conclusion while Russia's relentless bombardment continues. Gold and oil are finding dip support still while FX pairs continue with their fragile/fickle price action. Commodity currencies feeling some love again but fading even as I type.

For new and older subscribers alike I repeat my view that it's still a case of not over-analysing but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs. I can't tell you what's going to happen next, nor can you, but continue to identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Algos will continue to knee-jerk price action on the variable headlines. Discipline is key in these whippy markets. If in doubt, stay out or at the very least keep positions trimmed/manageable.

GBPUSD: Finding a base at 1.3140 again after failing into 1.3200 again.EURGBP: Decent base at 0.8380-90 again and helping to cap GBPUSD. More two-way business expected.GBPJPY: Support at 156.60 in latest retreat after failure at 157.20 amid fragile risk tones while the risk jury remains out.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever.

EURUSD: Holding 1.1020-30 in latest retreat and now back up through the pivotal 1.1050-60. USDJPY: 119.00 now providing good support but capping into 119.30 so far. EURJPY: Support still at 131.40 but failure into 132.00 so far in these ever fickle times. USDCHF: Capping at 0.9350 but holding 0.9300 in the latest retreat as EURCHF

EURCHF: Support at 1.0280 being tested but holding for the moment with SNB lurking in the dips but equally rally sellers poised still though as I've been warning.

AUDUSD: Testing 0.7425 amid the return of some commodity-ccy demand after a strong hold of 0.7370 but back in retreat there as I type. USDCAD: Holding 1.2590 again as we continue to range. Two-way business expected amid all the uncertainty still.Caution required still with so many variables but range ever tightening to reflect current uncertainty.

As a bit of housekeeping, and further to my warning on Friday, I will be taking Tom-Wed off as my sailing boat goes back in the water and I need to get a bit more work done and oversee the operation. It's been a while since I had any time off so I hope I have your blessings. My daily update should return on Thursday.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.23 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3160

EURUSD 1.1062

EURGBP 0.8397

GBPEUR 1.1906

GBPJPY 156.87

GBPCAD 1.6570

GBPCHF 1.2240

GBPZAR 19.6430

GBPHKD 10.2516

USDJPY 119.20

EURJPY 131.72

EURCHF 1.0300

EURHKD 8.6147

AUDUSD 0.7396

USDCAD 1.2595

USDCHF 0.9317

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