Thursday 20 September 2018
Another roller coaster Brexit-related ride for the Pound and ongoing US-led trade war concerns are still combining to keep traders guessing but with little net impact on currency markets still.
GBPUSD yesterday tested the initial 1.3220 sell/resistance area I highlighted in the aftermath of the stronger UK inflation data but then fell back sharply from 1.3180 triggering stops through 1.3130 to post lows of 1.3097 as May rejected the EU'S plans on the Irish border issue. Plenty of hot air since from the Salzburg summit has found some dip demand again and we've now been back up to 1.3207 this morning on stronger UK retail sales data.Sellers still poised into 1.3220 then 1.3250, 1.3280, and 1.3300. Immediate demand now building at 1.3180 and 1.3150 then larger into that 1.3130 line again with more around 1.3100, 1.3080 and 1.3060 still. I prefer to take advantage of the rallies to go short still but equally dip buyers also finding value.
EURGBP initially held on those lower support levels and rallied to test 0.8920-30 (GBPEUR down to 1.1205) on the general May-related GBP supply but similarly has fallen back to the lows again this morning on the renewed GBP demand and UK data.Sellers now initially poised around 0.8880-85 then 0.8900 with more between 0.8920-30 still. Immediate demand around 0.8855-60, then 0.8830, 0.8800 and 0.8785.
EURUSD remains tightly bound and has once again found dip demand at 1.1660 but equally sellers above 1.1700. Buying interest now at 1.1680 then larger between 1.1650-60 and 1.1620 still then 1.1600. Sellers still poised between 1.1720-30 with large option expiry interest today also in play then 1.1750, 1.1780-85 and 1.1800.
USDJPY is also going nowhere in a hurry in a 112.00-50 range for the moment. we still have sell interest at 112.50 holding further gains for the moment with larger interest between 112.80-113.00. Buyers now around 112.00 then 111.80 and 111.50.Jury still remains out on the Swiss Franc with the SNB leaving interest rates on hold as expected this morning and the "highly valued" Franc message still intact but lowering inflation forecasts. USDCHF yesterday took out the decent sell interest between 0.9660-80 but failed above 0.9700 and since been back to 0.9656.Sellers back in around 0.9680 then 0.9700 again. Buyers at 0.9650 then 0.9630 and 0.9600 again. EURCHF remains underpinned but still finding rally sellers above 1.1300 as I've been warning.
AUDUSD is still making its mind up finding some support from general USD supply and an RBA report that the Aussie $ could potentially rise 6% on US-China trade war issues. Sellers still between 0.7280-00 and 0.7320 with immediate demand at 0.7250 then 0.7220 and larger into 0.7200 still. USDCAD has fallen further on a softer USD/firmer oil price combo to test support at 1.2900 where large option expiry interest lurks today. More buyers at 1.2880 and 1.2860 with sellers now around 1.2930, 1.2950 then lining up around the pivotal 1.2980 area and 1.3000 where large option expiry interest also today is expected to help cap rallies.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing, so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.
Have a good day out there one and all.
Interbank Rate 09.06 BST GBPUSD 1.3183 EURUSD 1.1701 EURGBP 0.8876 GBPEUR 1.1267 USDJPY 112.25 USDCAD 1.2911 USDCHF 0.9671 GBPAUD 1.8133 GBPCAD 1.7019 GBPCHF 1.2748 GBPZAR 19.0570 GBPHKD 10.2216 EURHKD 9.0721