Tuesday 6 February 2024
Yesterday saw some further USD demand prevailing in the wake of Friday's US NFP report helped by decent US PMI data but we've seen some reversal in the last few hours as US bond yields fail to make further ground. The RBA left interest rates on hold as expected but the tones were on the hawkish side saying the job on inflation was not yet done and further hikes could not be ruled out. BOE's Pill yesterday expressed concern over level of UK economic activity.
The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Red Sea tensions still casting their own shadow.
Equities remain underpinned after a down-up day but currently steady as European trading gets underway. WTI retreated further and dropped back from $72.60 yesterday then $73.00 this morning with sellers poised still after holding $71.30-50 with Red Sea concerns, and technicals offering some support again. Gold fell too on the higher bond yields/better risk tones but holding the old $2015 support area and now capping at $2030 as we continue to range tightly.
GBPUSD: Holding 1.2520-25 in yesterday's extended USD demand-led retreat and posting 1.2565 this morning as some USD supply returns. I remain poised for further sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Capping at 0.8570 but holding 0.8550 so far as the BOE/ECB debates continue. GBPJPY: Capping at 186.70 after holding 186.20 and we can expect rally sellers to remain poised amid all the uncertainty in these ever fickle markets.
EURUSD: Support at 1.0720-30 this time after the break of 1.0750 triggered some stops understandably in the extended USD demand-led retreat and capping at 1.0760 this morning after some soft data and dovish ECB comments. I remain a rally seller.
USDJPY: Capping around 148.80 again with 149.00 still providing some key resistance but holding 148.50 so far after previous hold of 148.35. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall but dip demand notable for the moment.
For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.46 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2552
EURUSD 1.0745
EURGBP 0.8558
GBPEUR 1.1683
USDJPY 148.63
GBPJPY 186.60
GBPCAD 1.6970
GBPCHF 1.0946
GBPZAR 23.7587
GBPHKD 9.7765
USDCHF 0.8709
EURCHF 0.9358
EURHKD 8.3558
AUDUSD 0.6500
NZDUSD 0.6057
USDCAD 1.3527
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