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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Greenback grabbed again after strong US data

Monday 10 June 2024

Friday's NFP data surprised to the upside, and some, and we saw an immediate jump in USD where we've stayed since apart from EURUSD which gapped lower on the Asian opening on the week-end's political fallout caused by the far-right showing strong support in European parliamentary elections. France faces a snap election on 30 June called by President Macron and concerns clearly evident in Germany.

Attention now turns to Wednesday's US CPI data and latest deliberation from the US Fed FOMC. Friday's data will count for little if inflation figures are lower as these markets remain in ultra-fickle mode.

Little on the data/CB speaker slate today. Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East tensions still cast their own shadow. Remember as always to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing.

Equities fell in NY then rallied into the close again but falling back in early Europe with profit-takers still lurking as the CB second-guessing continues. WTI has traded tightly but with plenty of two-way business between $75.00-76.00. Gold continued its fall through $2350 and testing $2285 on in a move that was started on Friday on the China news but then the USD buying. Dip demand should remain but profit-takers still poised.

GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2800-10 yet again on Friday and a quick fall from there to 1.2740 in the NFP fallout. Support coming in at the old 1.2700-10 support since helped by GBPJPY demand and EURGBP supply. I remain a rally seller per ongoing strategy. EURGBP: Suffering on the European political turmoil and a sharp drop through 0.8490 but holding around 0.8450-55 so far. Politics will now supercede ECB/BOE conjecture for the moment. GBPJPY: Holding 198.80 on Friday but capping at 199.80-90 again. Sellers will remain poised in these fickle markets but I'm still expecting dip buyers too.

EURUSD: Failing at 1.0900 then the sharp drop to 1.0820-30 post-NFPs before gapping in Asia and falling further to look at 1.0745-50 amid the political fallout. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. USDJPY: Support at 155.40 pre-NFPs then the sharp rally to 156.60 before coming to a halt this time at  157.20.

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