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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Greenback still the main flavour

Thursday 28 March 2024

We've seen some further US Dollar demand amid increasing conjecture that the US Fed won't be the first to cut rates but some supply around key levels on GBPUSD and USDJPY still for example where we've also had more Japanese verbal intervention helping to still keep a lid on things at the key 151.80-00 area.

UK final GDP data out this morning had no revisions and therefore sprung no surprises but Germany continues to cause concern with the latest soggy Retail Sales figures. Easter holidays/long week-end ahead will add its own vagaries given there's still some data releases from both sides of the Pond and US Fed Chair Powell plus Daly also scheduled to speak tomorrow.

The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions still cast their own shadow. Remember to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows. Don't get greedy or over-analyse. These are tight ranges and will produce regular jobbing opportunities therefore while the jury remains out.

Equities remain underpinned overall on the firm belief that interest rates will be coming down at some stage soon and have been on the rise again in Asia after another profit-takig dip into the long w-e. WTI has traded tightly $80.80-$81.80 this time amid the second-guessing on Red Sea/Gaza, CBs and global economy. Gold holding $2175 now and testing $2200 again as I type as the shiny stuff retains its allure.

GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2640 amid the USD demand and some GBPJPY rally supply but still finding technical support around 1.2580-90 as I type. I remain poised for further re-sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Sellers prevailing at 0.8585 but holding 0.8555 atm amid the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture. GBPJPY: A retreat into 190.50 as I type amid some GBP supply/JPY demand double whammy after capping at 191.50-60. Sellers will remain poised as I've been warning.

Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email

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