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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Greenback still under pressure

Tuesday 28 November 2023

Yesterday we saw US bond yields fall after Friday's rise and the Greenback fell again helped by further estimates of month-end flows providing a larger than average USD sell-signal. Today is the Spot trading date so we'll keep an eye on the daily 16.00 London fix as well as other natural flow activity. Risk sentiment has taken a dip too bringing with it JPY and CHF demand helping to cap core pairs.

Further downward pressure on USDJPY was brought about by a press report in Japan saying that the BOJ will decide whether to end the negative short-term rate policy as early as H1 2024. A few CB speakers on the slate today.The ongoing Middle East back-story sadly continues meanwhile and casts its own shadow over markets but still not driving prices. Ignore at your peril though. US CPI data on Thursday also in focus.

Equities have been up and down on the variable risk but have fallen again in early European trading. WTI has seen a dip into $74.00 after capping at $76.00-30 with global demand concerns continuing and OPEC+ meeting starting on Thursday. Gold has found a base at $2005 this time but capping at $2020 amid the USD supply and uncertain risk sentiment as the jury remains out.

GBPUSD: Holding 1.2600 and remaining underpinned for the moment amid the USD supply but still tempered by some GBPJPY supply and capping at 1.2640. I remain poised for rally sells when momentum fades but caution still required for the moment.

EURGBP: Support at 0.8655 this time in latest retreat amid the GBP demand again and now capping at 0.8680. More two-way expected amid the core pair fluctuation/CB rhetoric. GBPJPY: Basing at 187.00 after the JPY-led retreat from 188.00 amid softer risk tones but some core pair support still. Sellers remain poised amid MOF/BOJ interevention fears and fragile risk overall.

EURUSD: Support still around the old resistance at 1.0920-30 but capping above 1.0960 as we rang tightly. I remain a rally seller overall still. USDJPY: Capping at 149.00 now but holding 148.00 in the latest retreats. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these still elevated levels.

For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email

Interbank rates: 07.57 GMT

GBPUSD 1.2617

EURUSD 1.0939

EURGBP 0.8669

GBPEUR 1.1533

USDJPY 148.53

GBPJPY 187.43

GBPCAD 1.7175

GBPCHF 1.1112

GBPZAR 23.6355

GBPHKD 9.8387

USDCHF 0.8805

EURCHF 0.9632

EURHKD 8.5332

AUDUSD 0.6608

NZDUSD 0.6091

USDCAD 1.3594

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