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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

It's another up and down ride for the Greenback

Tuesday 9 March 2021

Another fragile 24 hours for the US Dollar amid bond yield and equity market volatility with China having to step in to steady their own stock markets which in turn has helped turn around Greenback sentiment in the past few hours too. Saudi miiltary aircraft activity in the mix too in this ever-fickle world of ours.

Yesterday BOE governor Bailey offered little of note with his speech and Q&A session but the Pound seems to be enjoying some vaccine-led support again while the Euro continues to look a little wobbly with markets having one eye on Thursday's ECB meeting.

As always though the FX jury remains out still so we need to focus on price action and value for money in our entry and exit levels. Discipline and patience needed more than ever in these ever fickle/fragile times.

GBPUSD held 1.3800 yesterday but equally capped at 1.3860 before testing 1.3800 again before the solid rally to test 1.3900 as USD sentiment turns softer this morning. EURGBP held 0.8560-65 but couldn't get up through 0.8680 and has since looked at 0.8555 as the GBPUSD rally outstrips the soggier EURUSD climb but back to 0.8568 as I type as we continue to range tightly albeit at these lower levels.GBPJPY has found a new base around 150.20 with USDJPY and risk mostly underpinned but failing into 151.20 this time as USDJPY falls back from 109.20 to 108.60 this morning.

I remain poised to sell GBP into rallies as a jobbing preference but respecting dip demand still with price action ever fickle. Equally a case still for going long in the dips therefore as we continue to range at these lower levels. Patience, entry/exit level and not getting greedy remain key.

USDJPY eventually saw a spike above 109.00 after hovering around 108.85 as USD demand prevailed but a distinct failure at 109.20-25 has now seen a solid retreat 108.60 as USD sentiment turns softer. Still wondering whether when/where Japanese corps are/ will be buying any remaining JPY in this rally for the usual year-end repatriation. EURJPY duly found a base into 128.80 that I noted yesterday but since finding a good cap at 129.50 as USDJPY retreat outpaces the EURUSD rally with EUR pairs still looking vulnerable. EURUSD made a steady retreat into that decent 1.1830 support area amid the general EUR weakness and USD demand but since had a look at 1.1900 as I type as USD turns around. USDCHF found support at 0.9320 this time but now failing at 0.9375 as EURUSD rallys.EURCHF back above 1.1100 though after holding 1.1060 with the SNB ever-watchful/helpful.

AUDUSD capped at 0.7680 but holding 0.7620 amid the softer USD softer tones and Gold staging a rally of its lows to test $1700 this morning and now testing 0.7700. USDCAD failed at 1.2700 again then 1.2680 and now down to 1.2611 amid the softer USD tones and with oil still underpinned.

The mighty Shrimpers return to the hallowed Hall in Southend tonight in need of a win given the tight situation down at the bottom. Fingers crossed, maybe some toes too if the truth be known.........

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.35 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3890

EURUSD 1.1889

EURGBP 0.8557

GBPEUR 1.1685

GBPAUD 1.8051

GBPCAD 1.7542

GBPJPY 150.95

GBPZAR 21.3277

GBPHKD 10.7689

USDJPY 108.69

USDZAR 15.3559

EURJPY 129.21

EURCHF 1.1108

EURHKD 9.2161

AUDUSD 0.7692

USDCAD 1.2628

USDCHF 0.9343

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