Jury out as a new week begins

Monday 8 November 2021

On Friday market attention turned to the latest US NFP jobs/wages data and although it beat expectations we saw US Dollar selling as traders and algos continued to push back US rate hikes after the Fed's rhetoric last Wednesday amid a week of cental bank dovish tones.

Still seeing some softer USD and variable risk tones this morning but not really extending any losses as the jury remains out. Gold is off its 1821 highs after Friday's strong rally on the dovish US bond yield moves with metals generally higher overall.

GBPUSD: The recent falls finally ran out of steam at 1.3420 on Friday but sellers now around 1.3500 again as we seem to be capping there still for the moment. Rinse n repeat while we continue to range. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping track of EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Capped into 0.8600 but holding 0.8560 in the retreat and currently hanging around 0.8575 where we have more large option interest today. I don't see a value trade at these levels but always keeping an eye on this pair as you know. GBPJPY: Trading tightly still after its recent falls and an indication of markets making their minds up on risk, yields, JPY at al.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side albeit against the grain currently so being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: Supported on Friday into 1.1510 and now back up through 1.1570 amid the softer USD tones. Rally sellers poised though 1.1580-00. I prefer to sell rallies still but patience, as ever,is key. USDJPY: Failure around 114.00 again and now testing post-NFP lows at 113.30 after failing to hold over 113.60. EURJPY: The old support line at 131.00 failed but found another one at 130.80 although equally failing to get back over the 131.50-60 area I highlighted last week with rally sellers ever poised. USDCHF: 0.9110-20 now holding again the lastest retreat from 0.9180 amid Friday's softer USD tones and CHF demand but with the SNB ever vigilant. EURCHF: 1.0550 now holding the latest retreats with the SNB ever vigilant but sellers in the rallies poised still.

AUDUSD: Friday saw a test of 0.7350 but we've seen a decent rally to test 0.7405 as I type amid the softer USD/firmer metals combo but tempered by the AUDJPY and some AUDCHF supply still. USDCAD: Underpinned at 1.2430 still amid the CADJPY supply still as oil caps again. Resistance at 1.2480-00 again. Large option interest at 1.2460 tomorrow.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.55 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3486

EURUSD 1.1574

EURGBP 0.8577

GBPEUR 1.1657

GBPJPY 153.12

GBPCAD 1.6796

GBPZAR 20.2976

GBPHKD 10.5087

USDJPY 113.49

EURJPY 131.33