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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Jury still out as another month gets underway

Monday 2 August 2021

The US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting came and went last week with Chairman Jerome Powell keeping his cards close to his chest as expected ahead of the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month but still dovish/less hawkish than some hoped overall. Seeing come variable but gently firmer risk tones as another week and month get underway. Some interesting option contracts rolling off this week to keep an eye on.

Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy even with some greater levels of intra-day volatility returning. Still some good two-way action to be had as the jury remains out so picking your moments and levels are more important than ever.

GBPUSD: Rally continued last week but found 1.3960-80 a step too far ahead of the large 1.4000 figure but in terms of sell interest per my last ordeboard and psychological sentiment. 1.3880 now providing a decent base in the retreat. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Another good hold of 0.8500 last week and now 0.8520 has helped to cap GBPUSD (and vice versa) but capped at 0.8550 so far as core pairs make their mind up too.GBPJPY: That old line at 152.20 providing good support now after a retreat from 153.40 amid the variable risk tones but now testing 152.80 as I type and helping to underpin GBPUSD.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.

URUSD: Capped above 1.1900 but 1.1850 providing a good base now with some large option interest there this week.

USDJPY: 110.00 now providing a good cap amid some general USD supply but support at 109.30 still amid dip demand and firmer risk JPY supply as we continue to range tightly. EURJPY: Ranging tightly still with 130.00 now providinf support after failing at 130.60 amid general EUR selling and softer risk tones.USDCHF: Capping at 0.9080 amid softer USD tones and EURCHF breaking down further into 1.0740 with the SNB seemingly not so involved for the moment but always keeping an eye on matters. EURCHF: Now testing 1.0740 this time amid the generally softer EUR tones and CHF demand I've been highlighting for a while now with SNB shadow ever present even if not doing too much to stop the recent retreat.

AUDUSD: Capping above 0.7400 on Friday where we have large option interest today but finding support at 0.7330 in the retreat. USDCAD: Finding good support/demand at 1.2420 but capping into 1.2500 with large option interest at 1.2480 tomorrow casting a shadow amid the variable risk/oil/USD tones.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.50 BST

GBPUSD 1.3024

EURUSD 1.1883

EURGBP 0.8532

GBPEUR 1.1719

GBPJPY 152.73

USDJPY 109.65

EURJPY 130.32

EURCHF 1.0760

AUDUSD 0.7358

USDCAD 1.2459

USDCHF 0.9052

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