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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Jury still out as another week closes

Friday 21 May 2021

Forex pairs and markets in general still in a state of flux amid second guessing the Fed/other CBs as inflation remains the key talking point.

Riak sentiment remains fragile as the uncertainty continues even though certain data, including today's EU PMI and UK Retail Sales/PMI, are pointing in the right direction. We have to remember of course however that all this comes from an extremely low base so I, for one, am not getting too carried away with any euphoria at this time. I'm not trying to be Doctor Doom , just realistic.

Jury on the Greenback still out therefore so ignore the noise and, as always in these fickle times, be careful with your trading. Pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy or over-analyze. Patience and discipline are key too of course,as highglighted perfectly by those post-FOMC moves yesterday.

GBPUSD: Another good hold of 1.4100 helped by some option interest rolling off today but also some GBPJPY demand on better risk tones. Now capping at 1.4200 for the moment. EURGBP: Still holding 0.8600 amid general EUR demand but capping again above 0.8640. Option interest yesterday helped to underpin as I warned but notable failure to hold gains. Still ranging overall though.GBPJPY: Still underpinned at 153.50 as I warned again in a tweet yesterday but sell interest at 154.50 also still.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats.

EURUSD: A good hold of 1.2180 this time amid the general EUR demand but capping at 1.2240. More option Put interest again today should help underpin. USDJPY: Still holding 108.60 and some pips banked again as I type but will keep some of those 109.25 rally-sell shorts. Decent option interest today in play.EURJPY: 132.60 still a decent base after sellers at 132.50 have helped cap amid the softer risk tones.USDCHF: 0.8960 holding the fall but failing as EURUSD rallied caps again but rallies tempered by EURCHF falling into 1.0950. SNB will be ever vigilant/helpful. Option interest potentially in play again today.EURCHF: Capped into 1.1020 this time as USDCHF fell and helped by some risk-off selling but some general EUR dip demand and SNB shadow keeping it underpinned.

AUDUSD: A good hold of 0.7730 and a rally to test 0.7780 again helped by those large Option Puts I highlighted here and on twitter but now back at 0.7745 as per my tweet earlier. Some option interest both sides of the price today.USDCAD: Held 1.2050 after a decent retreat on the softer USD/firmer oil tones but now capping at 1.2100 after a rally helped by more CADJPY supply.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week-end everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.18 BST

GBPUSD 1.4178

EURUSD 1.2230

EURGBP 0.8624

GBPEUR 1.1594

GBPAUD 1.8303

GBPCAD 1.7133

GBPJPY 154.22

GBPZAR 19.8312

GBPHKD 10.9938

USDJPY 108.76

USDZAR 13.9816

EURJPY 133.02

EURCHF 1.0958

EURHKD 9.4774

AUDUSD 0.7744

USDCAD 1.2084

USDCHF 0.8961

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