Monday 8 June 2020
Far better than expected US jobs data sent algos and traders spinning on Friday.
Fake news claimed The Washington Post, massaged data certainly regarding the reporting period and claims of how the forms are completed where firms are told to exclude employees who didn't receive any pay or were on leave without pay during the pay period including the 12th of each month.
Either way the Greenback and risk both got a lift as traders were left scratching their heads and we saw somw volatile but good two-way business too. Over the week-end OPEC+ decided to carry on the cuts for for another month as widely expected and I retweeted on Friday. US Fed policy decision this Wednesday in the mix now, and it promises to be another lively week, even if it doesn't make more sense.
GBPUSD found the expected dip demand I highlighted again on Friday and rallied to test 1.2725 before falling late in the day and indeed we saw another opportuntity in Asia when we rallied again to 1.2730 only to fall back as European trading got underway.EURGBP failed at 0.8980 and the retreat below 0.8900 once again helped put a bid under GBPUSD as EURUSD found sellers. GBPJPY found a base this time at 138.00 as the risk on rocket ship hurtled into the stratosphere and went up to look at 139.60 before capping again but still underpinned.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. Dip demand still expected.
USDJPY jumped on the crazy US jobs data and better risk sentiment but failed sbove 109.80 but still underpinned and holding 109.40 atm. EURJPY remains underpinned at 123.50 on the better risk/core pair demand but capped at 124.30 still as core pairs find rally sellers. EURUSD continues to find sellers above 1.1360 but decent support building now at 1.1280.USDCHF also exploded higher on the US jobs data before capping at 0.9650 but still underpinned between 0.9600-20 with SNB still propping up the dips but Sight Depo data just out suggests a little less need.
AUDUSD held 0.6950 and saw another rally helped by some AUDJPY demand again but failed above 0.7000 before reteating but holding 0.6960.USDCAD failed above 1.3500 and fell to look at 1.3400 amid the good Canadian jobs data but held on helped by firmer USD too and those large 1.3400 expiries.Rallies petered out into 1.3450 helped by talk of the OPEC+ extendsion on cuts by 1 month and now since confirmed.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.37 BST