Monday 6 July 2020
Strong rallies in Chinese equity markets and their highest daily turnovers in 5 years have given markets and FX pairs a bullish risk-on tone again as the glass half-full brigade take control once more in this rollercoaster ride with COVID 19 resurgence fears still a real threat.
GBPUSD has been up through 1.2500 a number times again helped by some GBPJPY demand but failing to hold gains so far. Support coming in at 1.2465-70 for the moment after a previous hold of 1.2450. EURGBP tested 0.9000 again but hasn't broken and now finding a base at 0.9030 where it failed to breach on previous bounces last week. Support building now at 0.9030 then 0.9000-10 again.
GBPJPY found a base at 133.80 and enjoyed a decent risk-on rally but capped into 134.75 but now holding 134.20 on the retreat amid some variable risk sentiment in Europe.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still expect to continue seeing some dip demand but cross-flows and Brexit will produce a mixed bag moving forward.
USDJPY has been tightly bound again between 107.35-75 supported by the better risk sentiment even though Yen buyers stay poised. EURJPY found a decent base at 120.80 but now at a cap at 121.60 after a strong risk-on rally but still looks underpinned as I type. EURUSD has found a base at the pivotal 1.1220 area but capping at 1.1300 again as we continue to range trade with cross-flows clearly evident still. USDCHF has retreated from 0.9470 as EURUSD rallies but with the SNB ever vigilant in the dips and has held 0.9410-15 so far. EURCHF remains tightly bound.
AUDUSD continues to defy gravity amid the happy-clappy risk-on tones even with rising COVID-19 cases and the NSW/Victoria border now being closed, not to mention the threat of Chinese economic retaliation still lurking. We've been up to look at 0.6980 again and support building now at 0.6950 again.USDCAD failed above 1.3580 on its latest rally but also holding 1.3520 amid the variable oil/risk/USD combos.
Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget to contact me if there's areas of trading these volatile markets, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.50 BST