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Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Markets second-guessing still 

Friday 9 February 2024


More two-way business in the past 24 hours but JPY supply notable still and USDJPY breaking the key 149.00 triggering stops to test 149.50 ahead of the psychological 150 area. BOJ Governor Ueda’s comments today were dovish too noting that conditions will remain easy for the moment but the comments had less effect with the move already having been started yesterday.


The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions are all still casting their own shadow. Data focus today is on the US CPI revisions which the FOMC have said they will be watching closely.


Equities remain underpinned as European trading gets underway with the S&P breaking 5000. WTI has tested $76.50 after rallying from $74.30-50 yesterday amid additional supply concerns and better risk tones.  Gold fell on the better risk tones after capping at $2040 but holding $2020 in the retreat so far as we continue to range tightly.


GBPUSD: Capping into 1.2640 again after holding 1.2570 yesterday as the USD jury remains out but support coming from GBPJPY demand still albeit off its highs too. I remain poised for further sells when momentum fades as we continue to range. EURGBP: Capping at 0.8545 but holding 0.8530 as the BOE/ECB debates continue and therefore ranging tightly. GBPJPY: Holding 187.80-00 yesterday and posting 188.85 in the wake of the JPY supply post-BOJ comments.Sellers will remain poised but underpinned again for the moment.


EURUSD: Support at 1.0740 yesterday but capping at 1.0785 this morning with general EUR supply and USD demand notable still. I remain a rally seller.USDJPY: 149.00 broken amid the JPY supply triggering some stops (including mine) but some further re-sells placed into 149.50 per my tweet. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall given that the BOJ still don't want this racing away too far but dip demand still notable for the moment.


For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk


Interbank rates: 08.45  GMT

GBPUSD    1.2618

EURUSD    1.0772

EURGBP    0.8538

GBPEUR    1.1711

USDJPY    149.41

GBPJPY    188.48

GBPCAD    1.6947

GBPCHF    1.1040

GBPZAR    23.9822

GBPHKD    9.8154

USDCHF    0.8754

EURCHF    0.9430

EURHKD    8.3749

AUDUSD    0.6505

NZDUSD    0.6138

USDCAD    1.3461



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