Tuesday 17 November 2020
Risk-on, risk-off, risk-on, risk-off and market sentiment continues to confuse with the happy-clappy section playing out versus the reality-check crowd whether it be on COVID vaccines, Brexit, the Biden presidency/Trump's exit, or /CBs to name a few.
Today sees a plethora of CB speakers (check out the economic calendar you use for timings) so maybe we'll find out a little more but unlikely given the lack of leadership/clarity thus far.
Anyhow while the conjecture continues and FX pairs remain range bound here's the latest order boards to give you some guidance that can actually help rather than second guess.
GBPUSD found a base at 1.3165 and since been back up to test 1.3230 again amid some better risk tones and reports that the UK's Frost is looking for Brexit trade deal by next Tuesday. Personally I think some sort of deal will/has to happen to save face on both sides but with a proviso to review down the road and that will not be so well received by Leavers or markets. EURGBP continues to trade 0.8950-0.9000 helping to contain GBPUSD and good two-way business to be had still. GBPJPY found a cap around 138.80 after a sharp rally from 137.80 and ranged tightly since amid the softer USD/firmer risk tones.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever.Patience continues to be a virtue and rally-selling in GBPUSD is still bringing some reward but entry level key as always. Definitely expecting dip demand still as I've said for a while now amid the current USD supply.Brexit remains very much in the room and the negative impact of COVID on the UK economy before any sort of vaccine-led recovery still in the mix.
USDJPY duly failed at the strong 105.20 line on yesterday's spike and now seen lows of 104.25 as I type. EURJPY failed on the spike at 124.50 but support still at 123.60.EURUSD still finding good demand on the softer USD tones and now posting 1-week highs of 1.1874. USDCHF failed into 0.9160 again as EURUSD found a base and with EURCHF steady albeit capped with the SNB still ever watchful though and currently holding 0.9100.Yes folks same pattern as yesterday so I hope you took advantage.
AUDUSD duly held 0.7280 and has now broken up through 0.7300-20 to look at 0.7335 offers amid the softer USD tones while USDCAD failed into 1.3130 and has retreated below 1.3100 a couple of times since on the softer USD/steady oil tones but holding 1.3060 so far on both occasions.
Markets are ever-fickle so don't forget to contact me if there's areas that you might need some further help with.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.38 GMT