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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Mixed USD tones overall still

Monday 20 May 2024

Good two-way business albeit in tight ranges still as another week gets underway. The softer USD tones post- US CPI data have mostly prevailed but a little demand returning this morning.

We've seen USDJPY rally to test 155.90-00 again in Asia and the better-risk JPY supply cross flow has helped to underpin core pairs but the Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East tensions sadly still cast their own very large shadow too and now with the added uncertainty of the untimely death of the Iranian President. Little on the data slate but CB speakers include BOE's Broadbent and Fed's Bostic, Waller, Barr and Jefferson. Remember as always to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows.

US equities have posted fresh record highs and remain underpinned despite some profit-taking/correction since. WTI held $78.80-00 but capping at $80.00 amid the ongoing variables. Metals have rallied across the board and Gold held $2400 once it broke up through again on Friday to post fresh record highs of $2450 but capping there for the moment. Expect profit-taking to continue in the rallies but appetite for the shiny stuff remains.

Housekeeping Note: I am away at a conference all day tomorrow and therefore there will be no update. Normal service resumes Wednesday.

GBPUSD: Holding 1.2660-80 in Friday's retreats amid the general USD supply but capping at 1.2710 a few times as the USD second-guessing continues. EURGBP: Capping around 0.8570 but holding 0.8555 as the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture and cross flows continue. GBPJPY: Holding 197.00 then 197.30-40 amid the renewed JPY supply/USDJPY rally but failing at 198.00-10 this time. Sellers will remain poised in these fickle markets but still expecting dip demand too as I've been warning.

EURUSD: Capping at 1.0885 but holding 1.0860-70 as we continue to range tightly. USDJPY: Support coming in at 155.20-30 on Friday and now bids around 155.50 after testing 156.00 again amid the better-risk JPY supply.

Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email

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