Friday 8th April 2022
The war in Ukraine sadly seems as if it's here to stay for a long time yet and the fall-out is yet to be fully known as the atrocities continue. Meanwhile we've seen more USD gains across the board as markets price in multiple rate hikes and bond yields rise.
Equities and gold both remain underpinned still while oil has found some dip demand again after the latest retreat. Euro risk continues with the first round of the French presidential elections this Sunday, not to mention the ongoing Russian oil/gas issues.
GBPUSD: Found a cap into 1.3100 this time and an extended retreat finally through 1.3050 to test 1.3025 and some pips banked again. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. Further falls in EURGBP and GBPJPY demand still helping to underpin GBPUSD atm. EURGBP: Another rally failure around 0.8360 after some EURUSD option-led support into expiry yesterday but the Euro remains under pressure. I would still expect some more dip demand down here but equally sellers poised in the bounce. GBPJPY: Finding support at 161.50-60 still in the latest retreats but equally failing at 162.20-30 again so far.
EURUSD: Yesterday's strong rally from 1.0860 but failure around 1.0935 no great surprise given the large option interest rolling off that I'd been highlighting. Retreat since to new monthly lows of 1.0850.USDJPY: Capped around 124.20 in the latest rallies but holding 123.60 in the retreat amid the general USD demand/JPY supply. EURJPY: Support at 134.50 still after a rapid retreat from 135.40 then 135.00 but rally sellers remain poised. USDCHF: Support coming in at 0.9330-35 now and testing 0.9350 again amid the gneral USD demand with the SNB giving a helping hand to help combat the generally softer EURCHF tones.EURCHF: Failures at 1.0190-200 again sees another decent retreat to 1.0140 amid the general EUR supply but with the SNB lurking as sellers remain poised still.
AUDUSD: 0.7470-75 support now broken amid the general USD buying but more support lurking into 0.7440-50 before we can get too excited about accelerated decline. Should see good two-way business still. NZDUSD saw its own retreat again from 0.6900 but 0.6850-60 holding the fall so far. USDCAD:1.2540 then 1.2580 now providing a base amid the firmer USD/fragile oil double whammy but equally can't get back up through 1.2600 area so far. Two-way business still expected amid all the uncertainty. Options interest in play again too.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good weekend everyone.
Interbank rates: 08.45 BST
GBPUSD 1.3043
EURUSD 1.0866
EURGBP 0.8331
GBPEUR 1.2001
GBPCAD 1.6417
GBPCHF 1.2192
GBPZAR 19.1976
GBPHKD 10.1582
USDJPY 124.07
EURJPY 134.75
EURCHF 1.0152
EURHKD 8.4653
AUDUSD 0.7462
USDCAD 1.2585
USDCHF 0.9344
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