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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

More of the same as another week gets underway

Monday 11 July 2022

EquitY markets continue their up and down ride as do oil and gold albeit those two still making less of a recovery while the Greenback continues to dominate the landscape. Better than expected US jobs data on Friday even allowing for revisions but some JPY demand returning again as risk softens this morning helping to cap cross and core pairs again.

UK political uncertainty continues to provide a GBP backstory with a plethora of candidates now throwing their hats in the ring which only adds to the Conservative Party's divided position. The Euro remains under pressure and markets will continue to second-guess the central banks in their futile inflation vs recession fight.

As always, don't over-analyse but be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always but equally hesitation can often ruin a great idea.

GBPUSD: Capping into 1.2050 again amid USD demand overall and in retreat to test 1.1950 helped by some GBPJPY supply returning but supported still by the soft EURGBP tones. Rally re-sells duly placed once more as we continue to range. I remain poised to sell rallies. Timing as ever is crucial. EURGBP: A cap now at 0.8480 as the Euro pressure continues but holding 0.8440 as jury remains out and plenty of second-guessing of the ECB and BOE still. I still think we'll see two-way moves overall.GBPJPY: Capping at 164.50 and down to 163.75 as the jury remains out and softer risk tones return with USDJPY running out of steam above 137.00 too. I think the variable sentiment will help provide good two-way pips still for the moment.

EURUSD: Capped into 1.0200 still amid the general EUR supply to test 1.0100 again after Friday's bounce. Ukraine, Russian gas supplies, ECB, recession remain the focus.USDJPY: A hold of 135.80-00 and then 136.50 but capping at 137.30 with dip demand being seen into 136.75 for the moment.EURJPY: Support at 138.25 but capping at 13900 now amid softer risk tones and ongoing EUR supply.USDCHF: Support at 0.9750 and 0.9775 now amid USD demand overall as EURUSD retreats but EURCHF still capping and tempering gains. Jury remains out on SNB and amid variable risk but CHF still in demand as further tightening expected.

EURCHF: Capping around 0.9950 and another retreat to look at 0.9900 amid the softer risk and EUR supply double-whammy. Some SNB support still I reckon but sellers will remain poised as I've been warning.

AUDUSD: Capping at 0.6875 in Firday's extended rally then 0.6850 and now testing 0.6800 amid softer risk AUDJPY supply and USD demand. GBPAUD currently trading 1.7550-1.7600 as core pairs rally and retreat in similar fashion. More bids into 1.7530, 1.7500, and 1.7450 again. NZDUSD capping into 0.6190-00 but holding 0.6150 so far. GBPNZD bids into 1.9350 still after capping into 1.9450 this time.USDCAD: A base around 1.2950 still and testing 1.3000 amid firmer USD and oil price off its highs with some softer risk CADJPY supply again.

Let's continue to be careful out there and have a good week everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.43 BST

GBPUSD 1.1965

EURUSD 1.0116

EURGBP 0.8452

GBPEUR 1.1831

GBPJPY 163.63

GBPCAD 1.5545

GBPCHF 1.1715

GBPZAR 20.3188

GBPHKD 9.3208

USDJPY 136.77

EURJPY 138.28

EURCHF 0.9900

EURHKD 9.8788

AUDUSD 0.6804

USDCAD 1.2993

USDCHF 0.9783

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