Friday 31 December 2021
Equity and commodity markets came off their highs yesterday but have found the usual dip demand and we've seen some good two-way business in Forex markets again amid the reduced liquidity/increased volatility into New Year.
As always, don't over-analyze or second-guess but keep your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify recent ranges to see whether we hold or break and what levels present value for money. Patience will invariably be a virtue but don't confuse patience with being stubborn. Be prepared to step back and review if in doubt. Forex markets will always produce opportunity so don't think you'll be missing out.
It's a public holiday in the UK on Monday and I'm heading away for the weekend so may not be able to update now until Tuesday when normal service will be resumed. Meanwhile I would like to thank you for your patronage in 2021 and I look forward to being of further assistance in 2022. Happy New Year to you all.
GBPUSD: We saw a test of 1.3520-25 resistance yesterday but retreated to look at 1.3480 support. Rinse n repeat since amid the mixed risk tones. GBPUSD rally sellers, including me, ever poised while keeping one eye at least on the cross flows and risk sentiment. EURGBP: 0.8400 now resistance (GBPEUR support 1.1900) but holding 0.8365-70 (1.1950 resistance) so far amid the mixed risk/EUR tones. GBPJPY: 155.00-20 now the decent support area amid the generally better risk tones and underpinned USDJPY. Sellers remain poised on this and core pairs when momentum fades but caution still required for the moment.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.
EURUSD: 1.1300 still providing support after a failure around 1.1340 this time. USDJPY: Good support at 115.00 now amid the general JPY supply but equally finding sellers at 115.20 still amid the softer USD tones. EURJPY: 130.00-20 support now but sellers poised around 130.60 still. USDCHF: Pressure on EURCHF still helping to cap this pair but support coming in at 0.9125 as I type after the failure at 0.9150 with the SNB ever vigilant. EURCHF: A further dip below 1.0350 amid the general EUR supply and CHF demand with SNB support seemingly pulled for the moment. New line at 1.0325-30 potentially though but sellers prevailing at 1.0350.
AUDUSD: Still tightly bound amid the variable risk plays and now 0.7240-80 for the moment. USDCAD: Support at 1.2770 now history amid the generally softer USD tones and oil price off its lows and now testing an old line around 1.2720 after capping at 1.2760.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.58 GMT