Tuesday 20 April 2021
Yesterday I highlighted some strength in the Pound amid better risk sentiment and now we've seen that perfect storm of USD and EURGBP weakness with GBPJPY finding more buyers and bursting higher helped by the USDJPY dip demand after holding 108.00
I do feel the GBP moves are over-extended but I do understand why we've seen this move after being very contained for many weeks and months. Often the case but that's not to say it's correct and I'll stay poised to re-sell.As always in these fickle times be careful with your trading. Pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy or over-analyze. Patience a virtue too of course.
GBPUSD: Failing at 1.4010 after its strong rally yesterday but a support line developing at 1.3975 then 1.3950. EURGBP: Failure around 0.8670 after the EURUSD-led rally proved a step too far .As I said yesterday here "Seeing a rally now helped by that break of 1.2000 but not flying away as sellers remain poised." Support eventually below 0.8600 but rally sellers still lurking.GBPJPY: Found support at 150.50 then 151.00 as USDJPY held 108.00 and some better risk sentiment, plus stops triggered on GBP pairds generally. 152.00 providing a cap so far.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats. Caution advised still as equally a case for buying dips still atm.
EURUSD: Finding a steady path higher to test 1.2080 following its break of 1.2000 yesterday but not over-convincing.USDJPY: Found good support at 108.00 Currently stalling between 108.50-60 but some firmer risk JPY supply and option interest in next couple of days helping to underpin.
EURJPY: 130.50 finally broken and now the support line but 131.00 offers capping for the moment as market pauses.
USDCHF: Tightly bound as EURUSD and EURCHF both look underpinned again for the moment.The SNB ever watchful and ready to help. EURCHF: 1.1000 hOlding yet again in the latest retreat helped by the SNB shadow and EURUSD rally but sellers still poised.
AUDUSD: Still underpinned as USD supply continues and helped by large option interest again along with firmer metals prices. 0.7820 capping so far but support line at 0.7780 and I will sit on my hands I think for the moment.
USDCAD: Capped into 1.2530 in Asia again and once more falling to 1.2480 amid the softer USD/underpinned oil tones again.
Tonight is crunch time for my beloved Southend United with a must-win game at local and relegation rivals Colchester. Anything less and it's almost a done deal that we lose our football league status for the first time in our 115-year history....
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.23 BST