Tuesday 16 July 2019
Once again we're seeing some pressure on the Pound amid all the Brexit debacle and political uncertainty that I've warned about for a long time now. It seems from the latest Tory leadership rhetoric that a no-deal Brexit is very much the likely outcome on 31 October so add that GBP-bearish factor to renewed safe-haven GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply amid the generally fragile global trade/geopolitical backdrop. Elsewhere the USD jury remains out as we wait on the US Fed at the end of the month.
GBPUSD has capped at the 1.2520-30 pivot and fallen this morning to take out the decent bids at 1.2480-85 seemingly heading to the 9 July 1.2440 lows. EURGBP up to test the 0.9020 is also helping to push down Cable after continuing to find dip demand as I've been warning, this time into the key 0.8980 area with EURUSD still better supported in the dips. GBPJPY sellers remain poised still as I've been warning and now broken down through the decent demand at 135.00 despite USDJPY finding support once more at 107.80.
I remain GBP bearish overall still and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always. UK data risk in the shape of wages/jobs at 08.30 GMT but will only provide temporary impact once the algos have done their work so stay poised whatever your bias.
EURUSD is finding dip support again but similarly still finding rally sellers too as we continue to range tightly amid much cross-currency play such as EURJPY selling versus EURGBP buying. USDJPY has found support once again at the 107.80-85 bids/support but fragile risk overall and generally soft USD tones also continue to help cap rallies with Yen buyers still poised. USDCHF has also found some expected dip demand while capped by general CHF demand/EURCHF supply still.
AUDUSD remain supported by the generally softer USD/firmer Gold scenario with now some added help from AUDJPY demand after USDJPY held 107.80 again. USDCAD found expected support into 1.3020 and has rallied steadily to post 1.3065 but remains tightly bound with firm oil/ generally softer USD combo keeping rallies capped.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Have a good day out there one and all.
Interbank Rate 08.23 BST