Ranging still

Thursday 14 March 2024

A quiet 24 hours with little by way of fresh data or Central Bank speakers and we've seen small ranges again in Forex pairs and ongoing conjecture on BOJ and US Fed interest rate/policy decisions next week. FOMC in blackout so we'll hear no more from Fed heads until Wednesday's announcement/presser but still some chatter around BOJ tightening.

Data today includes US PPI, Retail Sales and weekly jobless claims while the Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions still cast their own shadow. Remember to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows.

Equities remain underpinned overall on the firm belief that interest rates will be coming down at some stage soon apart from in Japan ofc and we've now seen the German Dax and French CAC 40 post record highs. WTI has pushed higher again and now testing $80.00 after holding $78.50 then $79.00 this time amid the second-guessing on Red Sea/Gaza and global economy. Gold held $2150 but capping at $2180 albeit remains underpinned overall on the belief that FOMC will start cutting rates in June.

GBPUSD: Failure around 1.2815-20 atm amid some inherent USD demand but holding 1.2775-80 still as the tight ranges continue. I remain poised for further re-sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Holding 0.8535 again this morning but still capping at 0.8550-60 resistance as the BOE/ECB debates continue. GBPJPY: Holding 188.60-80 in the retreats and some expected dip support once again helping with rally to 189.50 again this morning as JPY conjecture continues with BOJ next week in focus.

EURUSD: Support around 1.0920-30 this time but sellers capping at 1.0965 yesterday on the general USD demand and ECB rate-cut conjecture.  I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. USDJPY: Capping at 148.00-05 still but a hold of 147.50 support in yesterday's BOJ rumour-led retreat per my tweet. Re-sells placed and I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall but still expecting dip demand amid BOJ conjecture.

Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk