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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Ranging still amid uneasy backdrop

Monday 15 January 2024

Currency pairs and markets in general still in second-guessing mode and ranging amid the fragile geopolitical backstory accelerating since the US/UK-led attacks on Houthi targets in retaliation for the Red Sea shipping disruption. Meanwhile the Ukraine/Russia war continues to grab headlines while the ongoing Middle East Israel/Hamas back-story casts its own shadow over markets and still to reveal its full impact yet IMHO..

Today sees a US holiday for the Martin Luther King Day observation and little on the data boards but tomorrow brings UK jobs/wages and German ZEW then US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Canadian CPI.

Equities have ranged tightly too amid the variable/fragile risk tones but with the jury still out on the speed of cuts by FOMC et al but underpinned still for the moment. WTI fell again after Red Sea-related rally on Thursday/Friday but has found support at $72.00-20 after capping at $75.30 with sellers poised still.Gold has rallied amid the fragile risk tones but ranging tightly still now between $2040-60 for the moment as the jury remains out.

GBPUSD: Capped around 1.2780 yet again on Friday but holding 1.2720-30 in the retreats. Some re-sells placed/pips banked and I remain poised for further sells when momentum fades but patience still required. EURGBP: Capping at 0.8610 and testing 0.8585 in the latest retreat as the CB jury remains out. GBPJPY: JPY supply helped by softer JGB yields and steadier risk tones have seen the pair rally to 185.50 from 184.50 support on Friday but we can expect rally sellers to remain poised amid all the uncertainty in these ever fickle markets.

EURUSD: Support coming in at 1.0930 again on Friday but equally a capping at 1.0980-90 as the jury stays out on risk and CBs. I remain a rally seller.  USDJPY: Finding support between 144.40 on Friday in the retreat from 145.50. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall but caution/patience still required for the moment as we test 145.50 again.

For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email

Interbank rates: 08.45 GMT

GBPUSD    1.2738

EURUSD    1.0955

EURGBP    0.8600

GBPEUR    1.1627

USDJPY    145.50

GBPJPY    185.33

GBPCAD    1.7057

GBPCHF    1.0865

GBPZAR    23.7637

GBPHKD    9.9088

USDCHF    0.8534

EURCHF    0.9349

EURHKD    8.5221

AUDUSD    0.6668

NZDUSD    0.6200

USDCAD    1.3408

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