Friday 21 April 2023
Forex market still ranging amid the CB/global economy uncertainty but equally that uncertainty is now spilling back into risk appetite and we've seen JPY demand prevail again capping cross and core pairs helped by some stronger Japanese Core CPI data which once again suggests a YCC tweak on the way albeit not immediately. Soggy US data yesterday and UK Retails this morning all adding to the general economic concerns.
Equities are in retreat again this morning on the risk-off sentiment while WTI has capped into $78.50 this time and broken down through $77.00 support to test $76.80 as I type amid the global economic slowdown concerns.Gold has had another dip after failing at $2010 despite the softer risk tones suggesting market a little long right now but holding $1980 again so far. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China/Taiwan tensions in the mix too and now ongoing Middle East tensions. Oh, and North Korea always casting a shadow too.
Remember, focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping amid all the second-guessing. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior and be poised to execute.
GBPUSD: Capping into 1.2450 this time helped by some risk-off GBPJPY supply again and a decent retreat to test 1.2380 after the soggy UK retail data.Some pips banked in the retreat after rally re-sells duly placed per ongoing strategy. Rinse n repeat while we range and I remain a rally-seller on this pair overall.Keeping some re-sells as USDJPY hedge too. UK economy continues to worry me. EURGBP: Support coming in still at 0.8800 and now up through 0.8835 as GBP finds sellers again this morning per above. Expect more two-way business still. GBPJPY: Capping at 167.50 as risk tones softened and back down through the 167.00 support area with sellers poised still as the risk jury remains out.
EURUSD: Yet another failure around 1.0980 yesterday but a good hold of 1.0930-40 this time as tight ranges continue and some pips banked. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall but equally a case for buying dips still as we continue to range. ECB conjecture continues amid the rhetoric. Decent option interest again if we rally. USDJPY: Capping yesterday into the former 134.80 resistance and a fall to 133.65 amid the softer risk JPY demand and Core CPI data. Pips gratefully banked and I continue to favour rally sells overall with hedges elsewhere as I've mentioned previously.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.20 BST
GBPUSD 1.2400
EURUSD 1.0946
EURGBP 0.8827
GBPEUR 1.1327
USDJPY 133.98
GBPJPY 166.11
GBPCAD 1.6771
GBPCHF 1.1092
GBPZAR 22.4480
GBPHKD 9.6596
USDCHF 0.8943
EURCHF 0.9789
EURHKD 8.5256
AUDUSD 0.6690
NZDUSD 0.6135
USDCAD 1.3522
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