Monday 8 February 2021
Risk sentiment remains firm overall, despite some vaccine concerns, as equities and oil stay underpinned, with rising US bond yields also notable so far this morning. Friday's latest US NFP jobs/wages report came in weaker than expected bringing with it some USD selling witrh some EUR recovery notable too.
USD demand still prevailing overall though but once again the Forex jury remains out amid all the noise so keep playing what's in front of you and don't over analyze.
GBPUSD held 1.3650-60 again but equally failing to clear 1.3750 and dropping back again as I type helped by EURGBP looking underpinned again for the moment after Friday's option-led gains. EURGBP nudged its way up from 0.8743 to the 0.8760-70 area on Friday where we had those large option expiries I warned about on Tiwtter and we've found support at 0.8750 since (GBPEUR sellers 1.1425).GBPJPY has found a decent base now at 144.30-50 as GBP and risk sentiment firmed with USDJPY still underpinned but failing into 145.00 so far.
I still have a naturally bearish stance on GBP overall and remain poised to sell into rallies but respecting dip demand still with price action ever fickle. Equally a case still for going long in the dips therefore as we continue to range. Patience and not getting greedy remain key.
USDJPY continues to find a base at 105.30 and now with extended rallies into 105.80 but still tempered by ongoing year-end JPY repatriation by corporates and variable risk tones. EURJPY has held 126.50 and now broken 127.00 amid the general EUR demand again and firmer risk tones. EURUSD duly found good support at 1.1950 then 1.1980 and 1.2000 with cross-pair flows still in evidence and option interest too. More of the same in the mix today.USDCHF duily retreated as EURUSD rallied on Friday but has held above the decent line at 0.8980 this time amid the EURUSD retreat and with the SNB ever watchful with EURCHF still holding 1.0800.
AUDUSD found support at 0.7620 on Friday amid the general USD supply but finding 0.7680 a step too far still while USDCAD found a good cap this time at the higher 1.2830 as oil price rallied and the Greenback fell but holding 1.2750-60 in the retreat.
As we look at trading opportunities it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week out there.
Interbank rates: 08.30 GMT
GBPUSD 1.3717
EURUSD 1.2032
EURGBP 0.8771
GBPEUR 1.1398
GBPAUD 1.7891
GBPCAD 1.7524
GBPJPY 144.86
GBPZAR 20.4746
GBPHKD 10.6332
USDJPY 105.61
USDZAR 14.9410
EURJPY 127.08
EURCHF 1.0829
EURHKD 9.3291
AUDUSD 0.7665
USDCAD 1.2776
USDCHF 0.9001
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