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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Second-guessing continues

Friday 23 February 2024


It's been another 24 hours of uncertainty with the Greenback finding some buyers again after initial losses as we continue to range amid the Central Bank second-guessing games. Lots of Fed speak with Waller a tad hawkish in his comments, noting he would need at least another couple more months of inflation data before judging whether January was deepset or an aberration. Mixed US data yesterday added to the variable USD flows. AUD dividend demand from corporate demand being noted helping to underpin for the moment.


The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions are all still casting their own shadow. While all the uncertainty remains, both economical and geopolitical, remember to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows. Don't get greedy or over-analyse. These are tight ranges while the jury remains out.


Equities enjoying good support again with the S&P 500 posting fresh record highs in the wake of the Nvidia results-led rally but off their highs as European trading gets underway. WTI retreating to $77.50 as I type after capping at $78.80 yesterday.Supply concerns still helping to underpin overall but equally economic slow-down demand concerns too. Gold capping at $2035 again but has found some dip demand around $2015-20 again as we continue to range tightly.


GBPUSD: Support at 1.2600-10 again yesterday after the failure above 1.2700 and I remain poised for further sells when momentum fades as we continue to range overall. EURGBP: Basing around 0.8545 yet again this morning after capping at 0.8575 once more as the BOE/ECB debates continues and we range tightly. GBPJPY: Holding 189.80 yesterday and a decent rally on the better risk tones but capping into 191.00 again as sellers remain poised on core pair supply.


EURUSD: Holding 1.0800 again yesterday and now capping above at 1.0835 this time and I remain a rally seller . USDJPY: 149.90-00 holding again then 150.30 with JPY supply helping to underpin but capping into 150.75-80 as I type. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall given that the BOJ still don't want this racing away too far but ranging for the moment.


For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk


Interbank rates: 07.47 GMT

GBPUSD    1.2665

EURUSD    1.0827

EURGBP    0.8548

GBPEUR    1.1696

USDJPY    150.54

GBPJPY    190.67

GBPCAD    1.7077

GBPCHF    1.1154

GBPZAR    24.4486

GBPHKD    9.8543

USDCHF    0.8804

EURCHF    0.9533

EURHKD    8.4225

AUDUSD    0.6572

NZDUSD    0.6200

USDCAD    1.3476



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