Thursday 5 October 2023
We've seen a small USD retreat in the wake of softer US ADP jobs data and bond yields off their recent heady highs. US domestic issues continue to lurk and markets maybe just becoming a little more reflective/pausing for breath ahead of the key US NFPs tomorrow. Some demand returning as I type.
Equities rallied then fell then rallied again into the NY close yesterday and staying firmer again in early European trading adding to better risk tones and JPY supply underpinning core FX pairs too. WTI had another realirt-check retreat yesterday and after breaking down through $87.00 has fallen to $test 83.00 before finding some technical suppor with the jury still out amid the uncertain global economic picture. Gold finding support around $1815 again with natural sellers still poised between $1825-30. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension but also the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: Good resistance/offers at 1.2180 now providing the cap after a sharp rally from 1.2120 post-ADP data amid the USD supply and GBPJPY supply double whammy but support coming in at 1.2100-10 this time where we also have option contract interest. Rallies duly sold and I remain poised for further rally re-sells. EURGBP: Holding 0.8640 but capping at 0.8672 as I type as core pairs rally off their lows at differing pace again. More two-way business expected. GBPJPY: Capped at 181.20-30 again yesterday but holding 180.20 amid firmer risk tones. 181.00 capping rally so far with sellers ever poised still.
EURUSD: 1.0480 holding yesterday's retreat after the post-ADP rally to 1.0530 and that area continues to cap. I remain a rally seller overall.Large option contract interest tomorrow in play at current levels. USDJPY: 148.25 holding in the latest retreat amid some softer USD tones but falls tempered by better risk JPY supply. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever. Some options in play with larger tomorrow.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.48 BST
GBPUSD 1.2136
EURUSD 1.0516
EURGBP 0.8664
GBPEUR 1.1540
USDJPY 149.00
GBPJPY 180.85
GBPCAD 1.6715
GBPCHF 1.1130
GBPZAR 23.6100
GBPHKD 9.4427
USDCHF 0.9168
EURCHF 0.9641
EURHKD 8.1883
AUDUSD 0.6346
NZDUSD 0.5932
USDCAD 1.3750
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