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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Softer risk and Greenback tones again

Tuesday 9 November 2021

Still seeing some weaker USD and variable risk tones this morning amid softer bond yields but not flying away anywhere in a hurry as the jury remains out. Gold is holding its gains while we're also seeing some JPY and CHF again capping those cross and core pairs.

Don't forget as we continue to trade tightly it's key to identify on-going ranges and trade the momentum if broken but not getting greedy if they stay intact. Second-guessing is often futile. All things/moves must be considered in context. Forex is not rocket science but it is ever-fickle so you have to stay in control of you/your trades as much as you can.

GBPUSD: A break-up through 1.3505 yesterday helped by EURGBP falling back and GBPJPY rallying back up through 153.00 but failing to hold above 1.3600 atm. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping track of EURGBP and GBPJPY as always and cautious of USD supply. EURGBP: Broke down through 0.8575 where we had that large option interest yesterday and now testing 0.8520-25 support helping to underpin GBPUSD. Large options at 0.8500 today potentially a driver. GBPJPY: A good rally back through 153.00 triggering a test of 153.70 but rally tempered by some general JPY demand as USDJPY fell through 113.30 and 113.00. Equally some dip demand at the moment as GBP finds support through EURGBP supply and USDJPY has bids below 112.80.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side albeit against the grain currently so being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: Supported at 1.1550-60 again and now 1.1580 but failing above 1.1600 amid EURGBP and EURJPY supply. USDJPY: 13.30 finally broke as did 113.00 (now becoming a pivotal area) as we post lows of 112.73 ahead of the stronger 112.60 support/bids and some pips banked but holding core shorts, part-hedged vs GBPUSD re-sells.

EURJPY: The latest support line at 130.80 being tested again after failing at the pivotal 131.30 with rally sellers ever poised. USDCHF: 0.9110-20 still holding the lastest retreat from 0.9160 amid softer USD tones and CHF demand but with the SNB ever vigilant. EURCHF: 1.0550-60 still holding the latest retreats with the SNB ever vigilant but sellers in the rallies into 1.0600 poised still.

AUDUSD: We've seen a further rally to test 0.7430 as I type amid the softer USD/firmer metals combo but tempered by the AUDJPY and some AUDCHF supply still. Some option interest potentially in play today.USDCAD: 1.2430 support being tested again after failure at 1.2460 where we have large option interest today as the pairs continues to find itself caught up amid the CADJPY supply and USD supply too.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.43 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3458

EURUSD 1.1584

EURGBP 0.8545

GBPEUR 1.1702

GBPJPY 153.16

GBPCAD 1.6905

GBPZAR 20.2230

GBPHKD 10.5944

USDJPY 112.96

EURJPY 130.87

EURCHF 1.0586

EURHKD 9.0543

AUDUSD 0.7421

USDCAD 1.2439

USDCHF 0.9136

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