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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Softer US Dollar as Jackson Hole beckons.

Thursday 25 August 2022

Firmer risk/softer Greenback tones as markets wait on the Jackson Hole symposium which gets underway today. Oil price underpinned by a number of other OPEC ministers issuing statements supporting Saudi Arabia’s comments about cutting supply.

Jury will remain out and the second-guessing will continue whatever's said at JH so, as always, don't over-analyse but be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always.

GBPUSD: Ranging still with support coming in at 1.1780-85 and rallies capping around 1.1865 and re-sells now placed at 1.1850 per ongoing strategy. I will stand poised for re-sells as we continue to range with patience a virtue still. EURGBP: Tightly bound still with two-way business still envisaged. GBPJPY: Currently capped at 162.00 after holding 161.40 this time as risk tones firm. The jury remains out and we can expect some fragile price action still.

EURUSD: Holding 0.9960 then 0.9980 as USD supply returns along with some general EUR cross-pair demand but capped at 1.0035 Rally sellers including me still ever-poised. Large option contract interest 1.0000-20 in play. USDJPY: Still ranging with a cap at 137.20 but holding 137.40 so far in the retreat. EURJPY: Capped into 137.00 after a good hold at 136.40.Sellers poised still whenever sentiment turns as I've been warning. USDCHF: Capping at 0.9680 then 0.9660 again in the USD sell-off but tempered by some EURCHF support with the SNB ever vigilant. CHF demand still notable overall helped by rate hike expectations.EURCHF: 0.9620 resistance now broken after a solid hold of 0.9560 amid expected SNB smoothing and general EUR demand but the inherent CHF demand still capping rallies too.

AUDUSD: Still finding good support around 0.6900 before the pair was making the most of the USD supply/AUDJPY demand to post 0.6990 as I type. GBPAUD capping at 1.7100 and now testing 1.6950 as AUDUSD rally outstrips GBPUSD. NZDUSD posting 0.6250 as I type amid the softer USD tones after holding 0.6180 again in Asia. GBPNZD testing 1.8950 after failure above 1.9050 with rally sellers still poised. USDCAD: Capping at 1.3020 then 1.2980 again amid the firmer oil tones/softer USD and now testing 1.2900. Expecting some two-way business overall though still amid the fickle variables.

Let's continue to be careful out there.

Interbank rates: 08.48 BST

GBPUSD 1.1840

EURUSD 1.0000

EURGBP 0.8443

GBPEUR 1.1845

GBPJPY 161.56

GBPCAD 1.5300

GBPCHF 1.1396

GBPZAR 19.9270

GBPHKD 9.2234

USDJPY 136.43

EURJPY 136.40

EURCHF 0.9615

EURHKD 7.7867

AUDUSD 0.6978

NZDUSD 0.6230

USDCAD 1.2910

USDCHF 0.9615

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