Friday 29 April 2022
Japanese holiday today and all next week (China too for much of it) and markets have taken a little pause to re-adjust a few positions which has seen some general USD supply with Japanese exporter month-end USD selling notable too after the post-BOJ rally. Still can't rule out some final month-end USD demand today generally though as we've seen all week so keep an eye on the final 4pm London fix although I imagine much of it will have been done already. Forewarned though is ever forearmed.
Equity markets remain underpinned but off their highs this morning as are Gold and oil amid the uncertainty. For new and older readers alike I repeat my view that it's still a case of not over-analysing but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs.Continue to identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Algos will continue to knee-jerk price action on the variable headlines. Discipline is key as ever.
A long week-end in the UK and elsewhere with Monday the Labour Day holiday so liquidity will be a little thin and I'll be taking the day off too as I'll be away. Normal service to be resumed on Tuesday. US Fed and BOE in focus next week.
GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.2400 in yesterday's further retreat and now back up to 1.2560. Some caution required for bears given this week's extended moves but I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.
EURGBP: Holding the support line of 0.8380 still then 0.8400 as the two-way business continue with sellers prevailing at 0.8460 again. Expecting dip demand still but equally rally sellers poised as the uncertainty continues. GBPJPY: Support at 162.00 but failure at 163.50 this time. A coin flip still here but should see some further dip demand overall for the moment.
EURUSD: I tweeted yesterday about the 1.0480-00 bids building and we've rallied well amid the the softer USD tones to test 1.0580. Decent option interest in play today. USDJPY: Finally capped around 131.25 and seen some good two-way business with an early wobble yesterday on BOJ FX price talk but then composure returning before the solid Asian selling which now sees 129.80 tested.EURJPY: Support at 137.00 now as the Euro finds general dip demand as does USDJPY but 138.00-50 a tough top to crack atm. USDCHF: A further rally amid yesterday's firmer USD tones and with EURUSD making its mind up still amid all the cross flows abut capped at 0.9750 and now looking at 0.9680 again in the softer USD retreat but EURCHF finding support too.
EURCHF: A good hold of 1.0200-20 with the SNB lurking in the dips and that decent EURUSD 1.0480-00 demand but rally sellers poised still.
AUDUSD: Holding 0.7050-75 in yesterday's retreat helped by some AUDJPY demand and now testing 0.7160 offers in the softer-USD rally.I prefer rally-sell side still but never greedy on either side. A good rally for GBPAUD as GBPUSD bounce outstrips that of AUDUSD this time after yesterday's hold of 1.7450.NZDUSD holding 0.6450 then 0.6500 in latest retreat but equally still capping into 0.6530-50.USDCAD: Capping around 1.2880 yesterday but now testing 1.2725-50 amid the softer USD/firmer oil tones. Two-way business still expected amid all the uncertainty.Some option interest in play potentially.
An away-day to Wales tomorrow as the mighty Shrimpers of Southend tackle Wrexham in the last away game of the season. Always a fun occasion regardless of result.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good weekend.
Interbank rates: 08.42 BST
GBPUSD 1.2560
EURUSD 1.0570
EURGBP 0.8414
GBPEUR 1.1884
GBPJPY 163.41
GBPCAD 1.6001
GBPCHF 1.2165
GBPZAR 19.9270
GBPHKD 9.7842
USDJPY 130.05
EURJPY 137.50
EURCHF 1.0240
EURHKD 8.2290
AUDUSD 0.7160
USDCAD 1.2725
USDCHF 0.9685
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