Thursday 18 April 2024
USD sellers/profit-takers came back out to play yesterday in the absence of any US data and steady risk tones albeit with equity markets still on the back-foot and posting losses for the fourth day. No actual intervention from the MOF/BOJ as yet although it still can't be ruled out but we have seen USDJPY dip below 154.00 again and capping at 154.40 a few times to keep traders guessing.
Euro buyers have been notable after limited further downside move in the wake of ECB June rate cut talk. Lagarde pointed to inflationary impact of weaker EUR and that was enough to underpin for the moment. Weekly US jobless claims out today along with Philly Fed Mftg data. Fed-heads speaking include Bowman, Williams and Bostic.
The Ukraine/Russia war remains pushed back in the world's attention but the Middle East tensions still cast their own shadow. Remember as always to identify your preferred levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows. Don't get greedy or over-analyse.
Equities closed lower in NY for fourth consecutive day but staging a small rally in Asia/early Europe as jury remains out with dip buyers lurking still. WTI capped this time at $85.00 before retreating to test $81.50 this morning after capping at $82.50 as the second-guessing continues. Gold remains underpinned amid the wobbly risk tones, inflation fear and CB buying at $2350-60 but a capping into $2380-90 as some profit-taking continues.
GBPUSD: Holding 1.2420-30 with some more GBPJPY dip demand but duly capping at 1.2480-85 as the jury remains out. I remain a rally seller as we continue to range overall. Some options in play at 1.2450. EURGBP: Failing around 0.8570 this time after holding 0.8530 then 0.8550 amid the general EUR demand but the ECB/BOE conjecture continues. Opyions at 0.8590 should we break higher. GBPJPY: Capped at 192.80 again after holding 191.60-80 amid better risk tones and underpinned USDJPY but sellers will remain poised in these fickle markets.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0620-30 this time still but capping into 1.0690-00 as the ECB conjecture plays out along with fickle USD tones. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. USDJPY: Capping at 154.70 then 154.40 and a retreat to 153.95 before bouncing helped by some JPY supply. I still say we'll end up lower but expecting dip demand in the current scenario of no/delayed FOMC cuts and no Japanese FX intervention.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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