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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Someone's pressed the pause button again

Wednesday 3 April 2024

Yes folks, markets are going nowhere in a hurry again right now with FX pairs ranging tightly. There is still some inherent USD demand amid higher bond yields, strong US data and increasing bets against an FOMC June rate cut but some supply returning with USDJPY still prone to Japanese verbal intervention keeping a lid on things at the key 151.80-00 area again.

EZ flash CPI data due shortly then a raft of figures from the US later including ADP and ISM .Fed Chair Powell and a heap of other Fed heads speaking later too. US NFPs on Friday looming as markets will continue to second-guess.The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions still cast their own shadow

Equities have been in retreat again amid some more profit-taking but dip demand remains overall. WTI has  found a base at $83.80-00 helped by the rising tensions in the Middle East and rallying again to post $85.20 so far but the second-guessing on Red Sea/Gaza, CBs and global economy will continue. Gold has risen again to post fresh record highs of $2287 as the shiny stuff retains its allure but down to $2269 as I type.

GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2585 but equally holding 1.2550 as we range tightly and I remain poised for further re-sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Sellers prevailing at 0.8575 this time but holding 0.8555-60 atm amid the ongoing ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture. GBPJPY: A retreat into 190.30 amid the GBP supply/JPY demand double whammy again but capping at 190.80 still. Sellers will remain poised as I've been warning.

EURUSD: Support around 1.0750 atm amid some general EUR demand but capping at 1.0780 amid the inherent USD demand too. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. USDJPY: Duly capping around 151.80 still but holding 151.45. I still prefer to play from short-side but also still expecting dip demand for the moment. Patience a virtue as ever here.

Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email

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