Tuesday 18 June 2024
A very quiet start to the week and my headline is of course designed to incur the wrath of the Forex gods and produce a far busier day today! Markets are in wait and see mode for the moment though with a little USD supply albeit some demand returning this morning but equally better risk sentiment after Friday's wobble producing JPY selling too.
Earlier on we saw the RBA leave rates on hold as expected and remain in wait n see mode too which unsurprisingly has had little impact on AUD. BOJ's Ueda has again pointed toward July rate hike but USDJPY dip buyers still prevailing with the pair back up through 158.00 which is a little curious. SNB and BOE next CBs up the ramp on Thursday. Data wise today brings US Retail Sales and Industrial Production before UK CPI/RPI/PPI tomorrow.
While the CB second-guessing continues remember as always to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows especially in days like today with thin liquidity. Don't get greedy or over-analyse.
Equities still seeing two-way trading amid the CB/political conjecture with profit-takers still lurking as we now start to dip again after yesterdy's decent rally. WTI seeing good strength and been up to test $80.00 on reports that recently solid levels of inventories may soon start depleting. Gold still finding a base at $2300-10 but failing at $2325 now as some stability returns. Dip demand should remain but profit-takers still poised.
GBPUSD: Support coming in at 1.2675 so far this morning after failing around 1.2715 then 1.2700 again with EURGBP and GBPJPY flows still in play too. EURGBP: Holding 0.8440 as EU political concerns abate for the moment at least but capping at 0.8460 amid the tight ranges elsewhere. EU politics still casting a shadow and BOE on Thursday. GBPJPY: Holding 199.50 then 200.00 amid slightly firmer risk sentiment but capping at 200.75 so far.
EURUSD: Capping at 1.0735-40 yesterday and since with a hold of 1.0710 as we range tightly. USDJPY: Two-way business still but after a higher hold of 157.50-60 and now moving up toward 158.20-30 area where we've seen recent resistance. Strange move given Ueda's repeated comments but markets do what markets want to do...
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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