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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

US-China trade war hogging the headlines again

Tuesday 18 September 2018

It's been coming for a while but last night the Trumpster announced tariffs on an additional $200bln worth of imported goods from China who have duly threatened to retaliate. Cue some risk-off sentiment as it looks unlikely to end well but the jury remains out and recent FX ranges remain intact for the moment.

GBPUSD yesterday rallied to post highs of 1.3171 but has since been down to 1.3130 this morning helped by some GBPJPY and GBPCHF safe-haven supply before finding buyers again and moving back up to 1.3147 as I type  amid some general US$ supply.Sellers poised into 1.3160 then 1.3180, 1.3200 and 1.3220. Immediate demand now building at  1.3130 then larger into 1.3100 , 1.3080 and 1.3060. I prefer to take advantage of the rallies to go short still but not getting greedy and happy to buy back in the dips while we continue to range.

EURGBP remains tightly bound, albeit with 0.8880 support giving way only to find more bids at 0.8870. Sellers now initially poised at 0.8900 then into 0.8920 and 0.8930-35 still with more at 0.8950. Immediate demand around 0.8870, then 0.8850, 0.8820 and 0.8800 still.

EURUSD once again failed into the 1.1720-30 resistance area I've been highlighting  but has also found a few buyers this morning around 1.1660.Some sizeable option contract expiries today at 1.1680 should help to keep the range contained still. Buying interest between 1.1650-60, 1.1620 still then 1.1600 and 1.1580 which both have option-related support today and tomorrow.

USDJPY remains tightly bound amid all the trade war uncertainty with Japan yet to be targeted by Trump and the timing of BOJ policy moves still uncertain. Sellers poised between 112.20-30 again then 112.50 with buyers now around 111.75 and 111.50.Jury still remains out on the Swiss Franc with few save-haven buyers ever poised and USDCHF has retreated to test 0.9600 with EURCHF stil finding sellers. Dip demand noted still around 1.1220 with the SNB ever-watchful but sell interest remaining poised between 1.1280-1.1300 and 1.1320 with buyers into 1.1220 and 1.1200 still. Some USDCHF sell interest now at 0.9630 with larger between 0.9660-80 then 0.9700. Buyers at 0.9600 and then 0.9580 and 0.9560

AUDUSD once again failed above 0.7220 but still finding support from some large option expiries in play at 0.7175 and 0.7100 today.Sellers still between 0.7220-30 again then 0.7250 still. Buyers now around 0.7175 then 0.7150, 0.7130 and 0.7100. USDCAD is still trying to make its mind up on all the NAFTA/trade war uncertainty and also remains tightly bound. Buyers now around 1.3020 again and 1.3000 still then the key 1.2980 area I've been highlighting.Sellers around 1.3050-60 then 1.3080 and larger into 1.3100

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing, so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Have a good week out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.40 BST GBPUSD   1.3135 EURUSD   1.1680 EURGBP   0.8892 GBPEUR   1.1244 USDJPY   111.96 USDCAD   1.3030 USDCHF   0.9612 GBPAUD   1.8244 GBPCAD   1.7115 GBPCHF   1.2626 GBPZAR   19.5656 GBPHKD   10.1836 EURHKD   9.0569

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