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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

US CPI data in focus

Tuesday 12 December 2023

We've seen USDJPY cap at 146.60 and retreat back to 145.20 as markets continue to second-guess the Central Banks and today we'll have another look at the current US inflation picture ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting with the release of US CPI at 13.30 GMT. US PPI tomorrow and then more central banks with SNB, BOE and ECB on Thursday followed by BOJ next Tuesday.

The ongoing Middle East back-story sadly continues meanwhile and casts its own shadow over markets but still not driving prices This morning's UK jobs/wages data was a little soggy and given the Pounbd a knock lower but all relative in these tigh markets as USD overall still making its mind up with the main financial events this week still to come.

Equities rallied in NY again and steady on their highs generally in Asia/early European trading with the jury still out. WTI has capped at $72.15 this time after holding $70.80 amid the better risk tones but sellers remain poised amid global demand concerns. Gold traded lower again as markets steady generally and testing $1975 support after breaking down through $1995. Jury still out.

GBPUSD: Holding 1.2530-35 in yesterday's retreat where we also have decent options interest today but now capping at 1.2585 helped by the return of some GBPJPY supply with offers building around 1.2600 too. I remain poised for further rally sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Support at 0.8565 yet again after a dip into the old 0.8550 line and now heading into 0.8600 amid the weaker UK jobs data. Jury still out but CB rate divergence in play for the moment plus other cross flows and hence tight range. GBPJPY: Capping at 184.00 amid the return of some JPY demand with USDJPY retreating again and now 182.60. Sellers remain poised but all more finely balanced still after last week's shakeout.

EURUSD: Support around 1.0750 yesterday but capping at 1.0790 with offers building into 1.0800. I remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: Capping at 146.50 and a steady retreat to 145.20 this morning to correct some of the over-extended correction from the, over-extended retreat of last week ! I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these still elevated levels.

For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email

Interbank rates: 08.32 GMT

GBPUSD    1.2562

EURUSD    1.0790

EURGBP    0.8588

GBPEUR    1.1642

USDJPY    145.55

GBPJPY    182.82

GBPCAD    1.7025

GBPCHF    1.1007

GBPZAR    23.8094

GBPHKD    9.7763

USDCHF    0.8765

EURCHF    0.9457

EURHKD    8.3954

AUDUSD    0.6587

NZDUSD    0.6146

USDCAD    1.3563

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