Tuesday 4 April 2023
Still a few JPY sellers around on the better risk tones but we've definitely seen another round of USD supply this morning with GBPUSD up through key resistance at 1.2450 and USDJPY in retreat to 132.50 again albeit holding so far on the cross pairs rallying. Yesterday's US ISM data adding to the bearish tones.
Talking of which the Reserve Bank of Australia this morning joined the Bank of Canada in pausing interest rate hikes as widely expected but in slightly more dovish tones amid the accompanying statement. The Aussie Dollar therefore has trailed in the wake of others taking advantage of the softer USD.
Equities underpinned again after yesterday's retreats but tightly bound for the moment still while WTI has capped into $81.50 this time after the hold of $79.50 yesterday and $80.30-50 since in the wake of the OPEC+ decision. Gold has seen a retreat from $1990 this time after the extended rally through $1975 yesterday and holding there since. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China tensions in the mix too and now of course the OPEC+ decision fallout.
Remember, focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior and be poised to execute.
GBPUSD: Key break of 1.2445-55 resistance this morning which has triggered stops as the USD supply continuing and help coming in from better risk GBPJPY demand again tipping the scales with EURGBP also falling despite current hawkish ECB chatter. I remain a rally seller overall but some caution required atm. EURGBP: Now through 0.8750 approaching 20th March lows of 0.8730 as GBPUSD rally finally outstrips EURUSD. GBPJPY: Support line at 164.50 then 165.00 amid the better risk tones and JPY supply and testing 166.50 as markets remain fickle albeit unberpinned atm and currently helped by GBPUSD break higher.
EURUSD: Decent support building at 1.0880-00 this morning and now 1.0930 amid the USD supply and EURJPY demand but tempered by EURGBP supply. Hawkish ECB chatter still but frankly market has factored that in now and I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall but caution required as its all very fickle still.
USDJPY: Underpinned at 132.20 in the extended retreat and 132.50 this morning since now as helped by the JPY supply continues per my tweets but failing at 133.00-10 so far amid the general USD supply.
More detailed analysis on a variety of pairs from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.55 BST
GBPUSD 1.2465
EURUSD 1.0917
EURGBP 0.8760
GBPEUR 1.1412
USDJPY 132.70
GBPJPY 165.50
GBPCAD 1.6763
GBPCHF 1.1403
GBPZAR 22.2620
GBPHKD 9.7531
EURCHF 0.9958
EURHKD 8.5478
AUDUSD 0.6740
NZDUSD 0.6292
USDCAD 1.3417
USDCHF 0.9120
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